Hail in Kentucky, April 16, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
340 AM EDT SUN APRIL 16 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER IA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE TODAY...
IT IS FCST TO DROP SE INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. IMPRESSIVE LIS AND CAPE VALUES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
WE AGREE WITH SPC DAY ONE DISCUSSION FOR POTENTIAL MCS FEATURE
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH WEST LATE TODAY AND MOVING ESE ACROSS THE
FA DURING TONIGHT. LATEST HPC QPF TRENDS LOOK GOOD TOO AND WILL BE
USED FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WI THE ABOVE DISCUSSION IN MIND...UPPED THE POPS ACROSS THE FA
FOR TONIGHT. HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF FA. A BIT
OF A PROBLEM WITH MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY...DUE TO TIMING ISSUES WITH
A THREAT OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING...AND THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED DEVELOPING MCS TO OUR NORTHWEST
LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. PERSISTENCE WITH THE CURRENT FCST  TEMP
TRENDS SEEMED BEST. --21

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

WEAKENING UPR TROF WILL BE CROSSING OH VALLEY EARLY MONDAY ALONG
WITH ATTENDANT SFC LOW PROPAGATING ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY EXTENDING
ROUGHLY E-W. STILL COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHWRS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSTMS MONDAY MORNING OVER NERN AND ERN SECTIONS OF FCST AREA. THESE
WILL PUSH EWD QUICKLY AS 925 MB RH SUGGESTS LOW-LVL CLOUDS WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTN. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM N TO S AS
COOLER DRIER AIR INFILTRATES IN FROM THE N.

PLEASANT SPRING WX EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH MSTLY SUNNY SKY AND AFTN
TEMPS STILL A LTL ABV NORMAL...BUT NOT THE VERY WARM TEMPS OF THIS
WEEKEND. MODELS SIMILAR IN EVOLUTION OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY. WEAK WARM ADVECTION...BROAD UPR-LVL DIVERGENCE...MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN AND DECENT 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WEDNESDAY...SIMILAR TO
CURRENT GRIDS. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES...SHOULD SEE A BRIEF RETURN OF
DRY WEATHER EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

MAIN FCST PROBLEM THEN CONCERNS EVOLUTION OF UPR LOW PROGGED ACRS
NRN PLAINS AND UPR MS VALLEY MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK...AND ITS
EFFECTS ON KY AND SRN IN. 00 UTC RUNS OF OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR KEEPING A CLOSED VORTEX TO OUR N...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK S/WVS EMBEDDED WITHIN WLY TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT S OF
VORTEX OVR MID MS VALLEY AND OH AND/OR TN VALLEYS. GFS AND ECMWF
INFER A BROAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OCRS LWR OH VLY ON SRN END OF
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT. SUCH A SCENARIO SHOULD PROVIDE A CHC OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS ABOUT IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME ACRS OH/TN VALLEYS...WITH TIMING AND EXACT LATITUDE OF PRECIP
IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...00 UTC CANADIAN MODEL (GEM)
SHOWS UPR LOW WEAKENING AND SAGGING SEWD INTO OH VALLEY LATE WEEK IN
CONTRAST TO OTHER MODELS. THUS...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO CURRENT
PRECIP GRIDS AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN TO ALLOW A BREAK IN PRECIP CHCS
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY SYSTEM AND PRECIP POTENTIAL LATE WEEK.  --TWF

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORR TO LONG TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
430 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-170830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
430 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 /330 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

AS THE AIR WARMS AGAIN TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
INDIANA TONIGHT...A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND DAMAGE...HAIL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS WEATHER DISTURBANCES ADVANCE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEND ANY
REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
LOUISVILLE.

TWF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
919 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006

INZ089-161430-
PERRY IN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...TELL CITY
819 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

...STRONG STORM TO AFFECT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY...

A STORM WITH DEADLY LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL..AND TORRENTIAL RAIN
WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY BETWEEN 820 AM AND
850 AM CDT. PEOPLE AROUND BRISTOW AND SASSAFRAS AS WELL AS
TRAVELERS ON INTERSTATE 64 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 66 AND 78 WILL BE
MOST IMPACTED BY THIS STORM.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
940 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006

KYZ026-161445-
OHIO KY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BEAVER DAM
840 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

...STRONG STORM IN OHIO COUNTY...

A STORM WITH DEADLY LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL WILL
CROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO COUNTY THROUGH 910 AM CDT. PEOPLE
AROUND HARTFORD...BEAVER DAM...AND ROSINE WILL FEEL THE GREATEST
EFFECTS FROM THIS STORM...AS WILL TRAVELERS ALONG THE WESTERN
KENTUCKY PARKWAY AND NATCHER PARKWAY IN OHIO COUNTY.

13