Winter Weather in Utah, March 29 to 30, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
243 PM MST TUE MAR 29 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...CLEARING SKIES MOVING IN
BEHIND REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PLAGUED THE WESTERN COLORADO
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS OVER THE CWA ARE SLOWLY
DISSIPATING AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA MOVES EAST TO THE FRONT
RANGE. ENOUGH SNOWFALL APPEARS ON RADAR TO CONTINUE THE ADVISORIES
FOR ZONES 9...10...AND 18 UNTIL EXPIRATION TIME...6 PM.

CLEARING SKIES WILL BE BRIEF THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT STORM IS
POISED O MOVE IN. THIS STORM HAS BETTER OROGRAPHICS THAN TODAYS
SYSTEM...BUT NOT AS MUCH DYNAMICS. THE MODELS DONT SHOW ANY HINTS
THAT THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND STALL OVER COLORADO AS DID
THIS MORNINGS STORM. IT APPEARS TO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND IS COLD
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHEAST UTAH. WILL GO FOR A BROAD 6 TO 12
INCHES IN CO ZONES 3/4/ AND 13 AND UT ZONES 23/25.

WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT: THE MAIN PUNCH OF THE STORM SHOULD LAST
THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN IT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FAST CLEARING SHOULD RESULT IN QUITE COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WED NGT. HAVE GONE AT OR BELOW COLDEST
GUIDANCE IN GENERAL. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE OF FROST
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...STRONG RIDGING AND DRY...NORTHERLY FLOW MOVE IN THURSDAY.
THE AREA SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
NEAR THE WARMEST GUIDANCE TEMPS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THURSDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: AS THE PERIOD BEGINS...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES RESULTING IN GOOD NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FLOW RELAXES AND BECOMES WEST BY FRI AS
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD AND FLATTENS. WARMING TREND BEGINS BY FRI
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL
CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE EC AND GFS SHOW
GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING/STRENGTH WITH THEIR 29/12Z RUNS (BETTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS). STILL LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND EXPECT
THE SOLUTION WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE...SO HAVE NOT INCREASED POPS
WITH THIS PACKAGE. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE BEST TIMING IS FOR MON
WITH FAVORED AREA OVER THE NORTH. DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUE AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY CO ZONES
      3...4...13.
.UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR
      UT ZONES 23 AND 25.

&&

CC/EH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
328 PM MST TUE MAR 29 2005

COZ001-002-005>012-014-017>023-UTZ022-024-027>029-301300-
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GRAND VALLEY-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-
328 PM MST TUE MAR 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE THE AREA TONIGHT.
LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE EVENING. DAMAGING
FROST IS LIKELY FOR MOST VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT BUT YOU ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND JUNCTION.

COZ003-004-013-UTZ023-025-301300-
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-
328 PM MST TUE MAR 29 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

PERIODS SNOW...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT.  LOOK FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON HIGHWAY 40
ACROSS RABBIT EARS PASS...HIGHWAY 139 OVER DOUGLAS PASS AND HIGHWAY
191 OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 5 TO 9 INCHES OF NEW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT BUT YOU ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND JUNCTION.

JOE/JDC/CJC/ELH