Hail in Nebraska, March 29, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
ISSUED BY WFO RAPID CITY
245 PM CST TUE MAR 29 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MID DAY SURFACE CHARTS ARE SHOWING THE RECENTLY DEVELOPED SURFACE
LOW POSITION OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH 12Z NAM. THE AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. MOISTURE AND PRECIP FIELDS ALSO APPEAR TO BE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE CORE OF THE N/S
JET STREAM BISECTING THE LBF CWFA EAST AND WEST. THE LOW CIRCULATION
APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT PRETTY MUCH AS SHOWN ON THE MODELS.  RADAR
SHOWS AN AREA OF WEAK CONVECTIVE PRECIP BRUSHING THE AREAS ALONG THE
SOUTH DAKOT ABORDER.  THESE WILL LIKELY LAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS, AND THEN DISSIPATE SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET. WILL UPDATE THE POP
GRIDS FOR TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AREA.

TONIGHT...AFTER THE WEAK SHOWERS IN NORTHERN SHERIDAN AND CHERRY
COUNTIES DISSIPATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE WRAP AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SURFACE LOW THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THE NAM IS
DRIEST OF THE MODELS AND IT MIGHT STILL BE PRODUCING A LITTLE TOO
MUCH PRECIP GIVEN THE LIMITED FETCH OF MOISTURE. CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IS ALSO LIMITED DUE TO A MODERATE AMOUNT OF WARMING AT
AROUND H5.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AFTER THE MAIN SURFACE LOW EXITS THE
PLAINS...A COUPLE OF WEAK MID LEVEL SYSTEMS DROP INTO THE REGION ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE H5 TROUGH. THESE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWERS. POPS HAVE GENERALY BEEN DECREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE. THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BRING IN A COOLER AIRMASS...DROPPING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES WED AND THU.

EXTENDED

.FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERIODS...BRINGING DRY
AND MILD WEATHER TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HIGHS EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES...MILDEST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PARTS OF CWA. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY AS UPPER TROF
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS
NEBRASKA ON MONDAY.  STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO TRACK OF
THE MAIN WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE REGION...BUT HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PARTS OF NEBRASKA FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

CARPENTER/TRIMARCHI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED TONIGHT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY
555 PM CST TUE MAR 29 2005

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-301030-
ARTHUR-BLAINE-BOYD-BROWN-CHASE-CUSTER-DEUEL-EASTERN CHERRY-FRONTIER-
GARDEN-GARFIELD-GRANT-HAYES-HOLT-HOOKER-KEITH-KEYA PAHA-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LOUP-MCPHERSON-PERKINS-ROCK-SHERIDAN-THOMAS-WESTERN CHERRY-
WHEELER-
555 PM CST (455 PM MST) TUE MAR 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE
TO HYANNIS TO BIG SPRINGS.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM AINSWORTH TO THEDFORD TO BIG SPRINGS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL...THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THAT WEDNESDAY EVENING...RAIN MAY CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW.  AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST
OF HIGHWAY 83 AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TONIGHT.

POWER