Flood in Pennsylvania, March 29, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
411 AM EST TUE MAR 29 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE PULLS OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON TAKING
PRECIPITATION REMNANTS WITH IT. POLAR JET STREAK IS MOVING WELL INTO
QUEBEC PROVINCE...WHILE RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
OUR WAY.

MUCH DRIER AIR POURS DOWN FROM CANADA TODAY BRINGING CLEARING SKIES.
HOWEVER ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS 24 HOURS RAIN EVENT IS
LIKELY TO ADD LOW LEVEL RH BEYOND THE MODEL PROGS. RAN A TAPER FROM
NW TO SE...BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES TO PARTLY SUNNY BETWEEN EARLY
AFTERNOON AND VERY LATE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE MAV MOS GUIDANCE IS A BIT
ON THE WARM SIDE AGAIN...WHILE FWC MOS SEEMS WAY TOO COOL BARELY
RAISING TEMPS 4-5 DEGREES FROM PRESENT LEVELS. OPTED TO GO WITH MAV
GUIDANCE MINUS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON UPSTREAM MAXES FROM MONDAY.

WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT BUT THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY
FOG...PERHAPS DENSE. ANTECEDENT MOISTURE WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN FOG
FORMATION. DECIDED NOT TO HIT FOG TOO HARD AS BUFKIT FOG PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINAL. AGAIN BELIEVE MODELS ARE UNDERDOING NEAR GROUND
MOISTURE.

RIDGING WEDNESDAY WILL TAKE PLACE WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. CI AHEAD
OF WARM FRONT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WENT PARTLY SUNNY
OVERALL. THIS COULD HOLD DOWN TEMPS A BIT MORE THAN MAV GUIDANCE
ANTICIPATES. BASED ON PROGGED RIDGING AND TEMPS ON THE
PLAINS...BELIEVE A FEW ISOLATED LOCALES WILL PUSH 60 WEDNESDAY WITH
MOST AREAS IN THE MID 50S. CI FORECAST MAY END UP BEING OVERDONE AS
LATEST GFS IS TAKING THE WARM FRONT FURTHER WEST. THIS ALSO CALLS
INTO JEAPORDY THE CHC POPS OVERNIGHT.  DJP

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING
SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE ERN U.S. RIDGE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE ERN U.S. ON FRIDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN ON
FRI/SAT. THE AIR MAY BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A
TSTORM. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUN INTO MON AS AN UPPER
LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.  -JVA

&&

.AVIATION(29/06Z - 30/06Z)...
LARGE SWATH OF IFR/LIFR CIGS STRETCHING FROM NEAR SYR BACK TOWARD
SOUTHWESTERN NY AND PA BEHIND PRECIP SHIELD. EXPECT CIGS TO STRUGGLE
OVER SYR/ITH/ELM BETWEEN IFR AND LIFR THROUGH 13Z-14Z...THEN QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. BGM AND AVP
WILL BE A FEW HOURS SLOWER TO IMPROVE AS THEY ARE IN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AT THIS TIME.  DJP

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...FLOOD WARNINGS NYC105
.PA...FLOOD WARNINGS PAC015-PAC131

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
342 AM EST TUE MAR 29 2005

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-300840-
BRADFORD PA-BROOME NY-CHEMUNG NY-CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-DELAWARE NY-
LACKAWANNA PA-LUZERNE PA-MADISON NY-NORTHERN ONEIDA NY-
NORTHERN WAYNE PA-ONONDAGA NY-OTSEGO NY-PIKE PA-SCHUYLER NY-
SENECA NY-SOUTHERN CAYUGA NY-SOUTHERN ONEIDA NY-SOUTHERN WAYNE PA-
STEUBEN NY-SULLIVAN NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-TIOGA NY-TOMPKINS NY-
WYOMING PA-YATES NY-
342 AM EST TUE MAR 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...SPREADING RAIN
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

PADAVONA