Flash Flood in Pennsylvania, March 29, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1013 PM EST MON MAR 28 2005

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
UPDATE FOR OVERNIGHT...MOIST CONVEYOR BELTS CONTINUE TO SET UP THE
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NE PA AND SERN NY. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER
COUPLE ROUNDS OF +RA IN THE POCONOS AND SRN CATSKILLS WHERE AN
ADDITIONAL 1-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL AS THE UPPER LOW SYSTEM
APCHS. SIG FLOODING PROBLEMS LIKELY. MDLS SHOW LOW TO BEGIN FILLING
VERY LATE TONIGHT WITH DEFORMATION STRETCHING OUT AND RAIN
DIMINISHING TWD DAYBREAK. PREV PRECIP FCST TRENDS ON TARGET. DID
MAKE SOME SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT MINS. A
LITTLE COLDER READINGS HAVE ALREADY WORKED IN...ESPLY NORTH AND
WEST...SO EXPECT TO SEE MORE READINGS IN THE MID 30S AND HAVE
ADJUSTED GRIDS/ZFP ACCORDINGLY. -BREWSTER

TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING AND DRYING ALOFT SHOULD COMBINE TO MIX OUT
SOME OF THE LL MOSITURE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WILL ALSO LINGER CHC
POPS IN FAR ERN ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING.

TUE NIGHT...BUFKIT ETA PROFILES STILL INDICATING DRY AIR ABOVE LL
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS...THINKING THAT
PATCHY FOG IS A BETTER BET AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD.

WED...RIDGING SLIDES TO THE EAST...AND FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHERLY...AS SOME MID-UPPER LVL WAA BEGINS.  EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MID LVL DECK BY DAYS END.  -CEMPA

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING
SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE ERN U.S. RIDGE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE ERN U.S. ON FRIDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN ON
FRI/SAT. THE AIR MAY BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A
TSTORM. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUN INTO MON AS AN UPPER
LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.  -JVA

&&

.AVIATION(29/00Z - 30/00Z)...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN/FOG WILL CONTINUE MOST AREAS THRU
10Z. SHADOW EFFECT AT AVP WILL TEND TO KEEP PREVAILING CIG AT MVFR
WITH OCNL DIP TO IFR DUE TO +RA. IMPROVING CONDITS TO MVFR-VFR AFT
18Z AS NWLY FLOW DRAWS DRIER AIR ACRS REGION IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW. -BREWSTER

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 5 PM TUES NYZ056-057-062.
.PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUE 5 PM ALL NE PA.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
346 AM EST MON MAR 28 2005

NYZ046-057-062-PAZ040-048-072-290845-
DELAWARE NY-NORTHERN WAYNE PA-OTSEGO NY-PIKE PA-SOUTHERN WAYNE PA-
SULLIVAN NY-
346 AM EST MON MAR 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. TEMPERATURES ARE
BEGINNING THE DAY BELOW FREEZING...SO EXPECT AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN
UNTIL MID MORNING. AFTER 9 AM TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE 32
DEGREES ENDING THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT.

RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY. A GENERAL 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES OF
STORM TOTAL RAIN IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ALBWSWBGM AND ALBFFABGM FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY.
THE RESULT WILL BE AN ABRUPT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. EXPECT RAIN
SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
FORMAL SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN THEIR REPORTS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON.

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044-045-055-056-PAZ038-039-043-044-
047-290845-
BRADFORD PA-BROOME NY-CHEMUNG NY-CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-
LACKAWANNA PA-LUZERNE PA-MADISON NY-NORTHERN ONEIDA NY-ONONDAGA NY-
SCHUYLER NY-SENECA NY-SOUTHERN CAYUGA NY-SOUTHERN ONEIDA NY-
STEUBEN NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-TIOGA NY-TOMPKINS NY-WYOMING PA-YATES NY-
346 AM EST MON MAR 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY. A GENERAL 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES OF
STORM TOTAL RAIN IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCT ALBFFABGM FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY.
THE RESULT WILL BE AN ABRUPT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. EXPECT RAIN
SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
FORMAL SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN THEIR REPORTS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON.

PADAVONA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
830 PM EST MON MAR 28 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     FLASH FLOOD      OWEGO                   42.10N 76.26W
03/27/2005                   TIOGA NY                EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROUTE 96 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING OF THE OWEGO CREEK.

0720 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TIOGA CENTER            42.03N 76.26W
03/27/2005                   TIOGA NY                EMERGENCY MNGR

            HALSEY VALLEY ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0720 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BERKSHIRE               42.28N 76.17W
03/27/2005                   TIOGA NY                EMERGENCY MNGR

            PARSONS HOLLOW ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

NICOSIA