Hail in Kansas, March 29, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
750 PM CST TUE MAR 29 2005

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY LINE PUSHING INTO CEN KS AT THIS
TIME LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM JUST WEST OF GBD TO AVK.  SCATTERED
SHRA AND EVEN SOME TSRA HAS DVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SURFACE
MOISTURE IS A BIT LACKING, BUT LATEST RUC MODEL DOES SHOW CAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE WITH CAP SLOWLY
ERODING. SO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF TSRA TO CONTINUE ALONG THE DRY
LINE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA. SO WILL UPDATE THE TIMING OF
THE PRECIP IN THE ZONES/GRIDS WITH THIS IN MIND.  WILL ALSO INCREASE
POPS IN CEN/SRN KS WITH EARLIER THAN EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS.

KETCHAM

-------------------------------------------------------------
257 PM CST TUE MAR 29 2005

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS...
PRECIP CHANCES/TRENDS AND WIND POTENTIAL TONIGHT...

VIGOROUS UPPER TROF OVER NM/CO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS LACKING
IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF SYSTEM, ATTENDENT MOISTURE UNDER THE
TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL LOOKS
TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING WILL TRACK INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY DAWN. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND FLIRT
WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A TIME EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE LOW LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN ON
ANY HEADLINE, THOUGH WILL HAVE EVENING SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS AND
MAKE ANY FURTHER DETERMINATION/CHANGES, IF NEEDED. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT, WHETHER IN WARM SECTOR OR
UNDER UPPER LOW, WILL HAVE HAIL POTENTIAL, THOUGH PROBABLY LESS
THAN ONE INCH.

ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY/SHORTWAVE TROF WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ACROSS MID-AMERICA INTO THURSDAY.
THIS LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME
THUNDER TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THIS HANDLED FAIRLY
WELL IN GOING FORECAST, SO LITTLE CHANGES PLANNED IN THIS REGARD.

MORE OF A ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND, WHICH
PORTENDS TO MILDER/DRIER REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN
THE GOING FORECAST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON THIS, SO ONLY MINOR/COSMETIC
CHANGES PLANNED. NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP/CONVECTION TO
ARRIVE SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS SUGGESTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND
ECM. HOWEVER DETAILS FAR TOO SKETCHY TO PIN DOWN EXACT TIMING
WINDOW. FOR NOW PLAN TO INSERT SLGT CHANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, AS THE ECM SUGGESTS PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

DARMOFAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  67  42  57 /  20  10  30  30
HUTCHINSON      47  66  40  56 /  30  20  30  30
NEWTON          48  66  41  57 /  30  20  30  30
ELDORADO        49  67  42  57 /  20  10  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  69  43  58 /  20  10  30  30
RUSSELL         45  64  37  54 /  30  20  30  20
GREAT BEND      45  65  38  54 /  30  10  30  20
SALINA          49  66  39  57 /  30  20  30  20
MCPHERSON       48  66  40  56 /  30  20  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     52  70  43  60 /  30  10  30  30
CHANUTE         51  68  43  59 /  30  10  30  30
IOLA            51  67  42  58 /  30  10  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DARMOFAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
403 PM CST TUE MAR 29 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-301200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
403 PM CST TUE MAR 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, TO THE
EAST OF THE TURNPIKE, ALONG A SURFACE DRYLINE. HOWEVER, A CAPPING
INVERSION MAY INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS, AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP, WHICH COULD PRODUCE HAIL
UP TO PENNY SIZE, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AT THIS TIME, THE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KED