Hail in Oklahoma, June 16, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
315 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...
BASICALLY BOOKENDING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE CWA.
CAN LOOK FORWARD TO INCREASING TSTM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH INSTABILITY
AND DEEPENING SHEAR OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS PROVIDE RIPE FEEDING GROUND FOR
MCS DEVELOPMENT. OF COURSE...UPPER LEVEL STEERING TRACK WILL BRING A DIRECT
HIT INTO THE CWA. CHANCE POPS ENTIRE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND
MENTION SEVERE ALL BUT EAST TX. PUT LIKELY POPS MAINLY SW AR PORTION OF AREA.
NW FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER HIGH NOT EXHIBITING MUCH GROWTH IN
WEST TX. THUS...MAY BE HARD TO PUSH THE PATTERN EAST OF AREA. TAPER TO SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST TX LATER IN WEEKEND...AND FINALLY REMOVING POPS AREAWIDE BY
TUESDAY. BRISK BOUNDARY ACTION AND RAIN COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
AROUND OR BELOW 90 AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY. AFTER THAT
TEMPS WILL REBOUND...ESPECIALLY EAST TX...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS MAY STAY
RELATIVELY LEVEL GIVEN LIMITED RETURN FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  92  74  96 /  40  40  30  20
MLU  72  88  70  92 /  50  50  40  30
DEQ  70  87  69  95 /  60  60  30  20
TXK  71  89  72  95 /  60  50  30  20
ELD  71  88  69  93 /  60  60  40  30
TYR  75  94  75  96 /  30  30  20  20
GGG  74  92  74  96 /  30  30  20  20
LFK  74  95  75  97 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

07/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-171100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST...AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
REGION FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.  THIS
STORM COMPLEX WILL LIKELY AFFECT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING ON FRIDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...LARGE HAIL ALSO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. I

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
MAY POSSIBLY DEVELOP AS WELL ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A SECOND COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSSIBLY DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREAT. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME FOR THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
320 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 PM     HAIL             PROVENCAL               31.65N 93.20W
06/16/2005  0.75 INCH        NATCHITOCHES       LA   PUBLIC

0245 PM     HAIL             10 SW JENA              31.59N 92.25W
06/16/2005  0.75 INCH        LA SALLE           LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

03