Winter Storm in New York, January 23, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
527 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
THE DEEP CYCLONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE FURTHER OUT TO
SEA TODAY.  A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL RUN EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW YORK ON MONDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES WILL OOZE INTO NEW YORK LATE MONDAY NIGHT. &&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
THE CYCLONE CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST IS DEEPENING IN A
LOCATION AND MOVING IN A MANNER ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS.  WE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDE THE BLIZZARD HEADLINE THAT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
TODAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
CONTINUED IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BASED ON BLOWING SNOW.  WIND
CHILL IS LOW ENOUGH TO DICTATE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES IN SOME OF
THE ZONES.  THIS WILL BE COVERED FOR AWHILE BY THE BLIZZARD AND
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE...BUT THE WIND CHILL CONDITIONS
WILL HAVE TO BE ADDRESSED BY THE NEXT SHIFT WHEN THE BLIZZARD
HEADLINE EXPIRES AT NOON.  A HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED FOR WIND CHILL
LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.  WE BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE TO COME UP
WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TODAY.  WE WENT WITH ETA
VALUES FOR TONIGHT...AND TENDED TOWARD THE AVIATION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.  DEEP SINKING AIR IS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AND THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE SKY SHOULD BE CLEAR ACROSS THE
REGION FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS INDICATES LOTS OF SUNSHINE
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON TODAY.  A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST MONDAY MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  THIS WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WE LEFT IT AS IS
BECAUSE IT AGREED WELL WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  ITS BACK TO DRY
WEATHER DURING THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ENCROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A WEAK CYCLONE IS SCHEDULED TO RUN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  THIS MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY
LINGER INTO THURSDAY.  DURING THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...EARLY ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE LOOKED PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO WE DID ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKING.  HOWEVER...WE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK TO BRING THE FORECAST INTO LINE WITH SOME OF THE
SURROUNDING FORECAST OFFICES.  ALSO...THE CANADIAN GLOBAL FORECAST
AND THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE PRODUCT SUGGESTED A CHANGE.  WE TENDED TO
GO DRIER TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN JUICED THE
PROBABILITIES DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING IMPROVING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND...TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MVFR TO
IFR IN THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS.  TONIGHT...VFR
WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND DURING THE EVENING GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING...BECOMING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ARE MAINLY LOCKED IN ICE.  LOTS OF SUBFREEZING WEATHER
AHEAD.  THIS SUGGESTS FREEZE UP JAMS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER.  OTHERWISE...FLOOD POTENTIAL ON RIVERS IS MINIMAL.
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.CT...BLIZZARD WARNING CTZ001-013 THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.
.MA...BLIZZARD WARNING CTZ001-013 THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.
.NY...BLIZZARD WARNING NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084
      THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NYZ032-033 THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.
.VT...BLIZZARD WARNING VTZ013>015 NOON TODAY TO NOON SUNDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...HEMMERICH
AVIATION...

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