Winter Storm in Minnesota, December 29 to 30, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
330 PM CST THU DEC 29 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SC SD LATE THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE TO
MAKE ITS WAY E INTO N IA FRIDAY MORNING. GOOD LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE N CWA WHERE WAA AND
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE THE BEST. THE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN
OVER NC SD HAS CHANGED TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTN AND EXPECT THE REST OF
THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE REST OF THE CWA TO CHANGE TO SNOW INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AND MAY CAUSE SOME
BLOWING SNOW. WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WX ADVISORY
GOING FOR THE CWA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE 6 INCHES OR MORE ACROSS
THE N CWA BY MRNG. WRAPAROUND SNOWFALL WILL END THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
BREEZY NW WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE MDLS INDICATE MID LEVEL
RIDGING OUT WEST SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BRINGING A DECREASE IN CLOUDS. FRIDAY NIGHTS LOWS AND
SATURDAYS HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE SNOWCOVER EXPECTED. THE MDLS
ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW FAST WESTERLY PACIFIC FLOW COMING ACROSS THE US
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASED
POPS SOME WITH THIS WAVE. WENT WITH SNOW AT THIS POINT...BUT THE WAY
THINGS HAVE BEEN GOING WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED IF THE FORECAST
PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY HAVE TO BE CHANGED TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN IN
LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIP POTENTIAL MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY...AS WELL AS TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE EXISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE UNITED STATES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. AN ACTIVE
POLAR JET STREAM SLAMS TWO DIFFERENT WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH THAT
RIDGE...WHICH POTENTIALLY IMPACT THIS FORECAST AREA...OR AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF IT. ON MONDAY...ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS IS PROGGED TO BE
PULLING OUT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT THERE IS SOME REMNANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
CWA...SO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...OR PERHAPS THE LEFTOVERS OF THIS
SYSTEMS TROWAL WILL HAVE SOME ONGOING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA MONDAY MORNING. INSERTED A LOW POP FOR THAT. IN THE 12Z
GFS...A SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO HIT THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS TO HANG IN
THE BALANCE OF WHERE THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFTS OUT ONTO
THE PLAINS. THE 12Z GFS PROGGED SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...SO THE
HIGHER POPS WERE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THAT AREA. THEN...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

WEAK CAA SETS UP MONDAY...BUT IS PROGGED TO BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY
SOME WAA AT 850HPA AND 700HPA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE WAA IS REALIZED AT OR
BELOW 925HPA...BEFORE CAA SETS IN TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SHOULD
BE LOOKING AT A SLOW WARM UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED IN THE MAX/MIN T GRIDS ATTM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING...NC SD...UNTIL 6AM CST FRI.
     WINTER STORM WARNING...NE SD...UNTIL NOON CST FRI.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...C SD...UNTIL 6AM CST...FRI.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING...BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE...UNTIL NOON FRI.

&&

MOHR/DORN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
935 AM CST THU DEC 29 2005

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-301545-
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-
935 AM CST THU DEC 29 2005 /835 AM MST THU DEC 29 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO TREK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW WILL MOVE FROM NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO
ALL SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW. UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN SOME
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE WILL BE A STATE RADIO BRIEFING AT 10 AM FOR EMERGENCY
MANAGERS AND FIRST RESPONDERS TO UPDATE EVERYONE ON THE WINTER
STORM.

SDZ006-007-011-018>020-022-301545-
BROWN-MARSHALL-DAY-SPINK-CLARK-CODINGTON-HAMLIN-
935 AM CST THU DEC 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO TREK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW WILL MOVE FROM NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO
ALL SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW. UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN SOME
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE WILL BE A STATE RADIO BRIEFING AT 10 AM FOR EMERGENCY
MANAGERS AND FIRST RESPONDERS TO UPDATE EVERYONE ON THE WINTER
STORM.

SDZ033>037-045-048-051-301545-
STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
935 AM CST THU DEC 29 2005 /835 AM MST THU DEC 29 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO TREK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO FRIDAY.
LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW BY THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL FALL OVERNIGHT AND 1 TO 3 INCHES
IS EXPECTED. NORTH WINDS FROM 15 TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE WILL BE A STATE RADIO BRIEFING AT 10 AM FOR EMERGENCY
MANAGERS AND FIRST RESPONDERS TO UPDATE EVERYONE ON THE WINTER
STORM.

MNZ039-046-SDZ008-021-023-301545-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-ROBERTS-GRANT-DEUEL-
935 AM CST THU DEC 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO TREK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW WILL MOVE FROM NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO
ALL SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW. UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN SOME
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE WILL BE A STATE RADIO BRIEFING AT 10 AM FOR EMERGENCY
MANAGERS AND FIRST RESPONDERS TO UPDATE EVERYONE ON THE WINTER
STORM.

DORN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
333 PM CST THU DEC 29 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0331 PM     HEAVY SNOW       MCLAUGHLIN              45.81N 100.81W
12/29/2005  4.0 INCH         CORSON             SD   CO-OP OBSERVER

            +SN CONT.

&&

GN