Winter Storm in South Dakota, December 29 to 30, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
400 AM CST THU DEC 29 2005

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
POTENT WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE AIM ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LATER TODAY AND INTO FRI MORNING. NAM AND GFS NOW AGREE WITH
A SFC LOW TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN SD.

FOG IS SLOWLY LIFTING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN SD WITH
DENSE FOG STILL LINGERING ACROSS I-29 CORRIDOR AND IN BIG STONE AND
TRAVERSE COUNTIES. WILL LET DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 4AM AND
INCLUDE PATCHY MORNING FOG IN ZONES...ALTHOUGH THICKER FOG IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER IN BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES A LITTLE
LONGER.

HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN CWA STARTING
18Z OUT WEST...00Z ACROSS EASTERN SD. WARNING ENDS 12Z FRI ACROSS
THE WEST AND 18Z FRI ACROSS THE EAST. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED
FOR PIR AREA. KUNR RADAR SHOWING PRECIP ENTERING SW SD AND PUSHING
NE OUT AHEAD OF POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING WY. EXPECT THIS
PRECIP TO PUSH INTO WESTERN CWA LATER THIS MORNING...MOSTLY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. RAIN AND SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD
WHERE TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. DO NOT EXPECT EXTENDED PERIODS
OF FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AFTER LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS. BEST
CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN EXISTS ACROSS ATY/ABR AREAS. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PERHAPS AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE A
SWITCH TO SNOW LATER THIS EVENING. DEBATED ON SNOW ADVISORY VS
WINTER STORM WARNING BUT FELT IT WAS JUSTIFIED ACROSS THE EAST WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN. VERY IMPRESSIVE LIFT NOTED IN SNOW
GROWTH AREA FROM 00Z TO 06Z ACROSS THE EAST AND EXPECT THIS IS WHEN
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL WITH RATES POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
700 MB FRONTOGENESIS ALSO VERY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT.
FEEL THIS EVENT WILL BE BORDERLINE...WHAT CONCERNS ME IS THE DIRECT
WEST TO EAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. FELT IT MAY BE HARD TO GET 6
PLUS INCHES OF SNOW WITH A FAIRLY FAST MOVING SYSTEM BUT LIFT AND
FRONTOGENESIS IS SO IMPRESSIVE. NAM AND GFS SHOW BEST DYNAMICS OVER
THE EAST TONIGHT AND GFS HAS LINGERING FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE EAST
INTO FRI WHEREAS NAM CARRIES IT FARTHER EAST. ISENTROPIC ANALYSES
ALSO PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT. FEEL 4 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH TOWARDS PIERRE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS AND RIDGES PUSHING ACROSS
THE COUNTRY. THE FIRST TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS TO OVER IA/MO/IL BY MONDAY MORNING. DECENT MOISTURE WRAPS
TO THE NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE
SNOWFALL WITH IT. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS BOTH AN UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE RIDGE PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. MODELS HAVE SPED THIS SYSTEM UP A BIT...SO HAVE ADDED A
SNOW CHANCE INTO THE DAY PERIOD TUESDAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE LINGERING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO
THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BROADENS OUT FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CONTINUED TO GO BELOW GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE TIMES THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING NORTH CENTRAL SD FROM 18Z THURS TO 12Z
FRI. WINTER STORM WARNING NORTHEAST SD FROM 00Z FRI TO 18Z FRI.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD FROM 18Z THURS
TO 12Z FRI.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE 00Z FRI TO 18Z FRI.
&&

TT/AP

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>