Damaging Winds in Illinois, July 26, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
305 PM CDT TUE JULY 26 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS ON THE HORIZON. THE QUESTIONS FOR TONIGHT
IS HOW LONG WILL IT LAST AND HOW MUCH WILL WE GET. COOLER AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE RAIN AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE
ALOT OF DRY AIR AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A FRONT FROM CHI-GBG TO A
LOW NEAR UIN. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING
ENHANCING RAINFALL WEST OF THE IL RIVER. MOST OF RAIN IS
POST-FRONTAL WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROF NEAR I-57 AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL ALSO FOCUS SCATTERED
T-STORMS THIS EVENING...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ANTICIPATED LATER
IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE HOT AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE
OVER SOUTHEAST IL AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EARLY IN
THE EVENING...WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY GOING SOUTH OF I-70 UNTIL
7 PM.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SE IL BY WED MORNING.
SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OF
A SHELBYVILLE-DANVILLE LINE DURING THE MORNING...AND SOUTH OF I-70
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ENJOY MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S.

AN UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO SWING DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER
ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD NORTHERN IL BY
EVENING. AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES NW AND NCENT IL FRIDAY...
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS. WILL LEAVE OUT A MENTION IN
THE ZONE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL PUT A 20 POP IN THE GRIDS NORTH
OF A CANTON-PIA-EL PASO LINE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS TYPICAL FOR LATE
JULY AND A FEW CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY AND
TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE PART OF A
WEAK UPPER TROF NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE TN VALLEY MAY RESULT IN
MORE CLOUDS AND SCTD SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN IL MON AND TUE AFTERNOONS.
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THEY MAY STAY FAR ENOUGH TO SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND GRIDS FOR NOW.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
     ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70.

MILLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1115 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-271100-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EFFINGHAM...FLORA AND LAWRENCEVILLE
1116 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS TODAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING THE
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061-271100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-FULTON-KNOX-
LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-
PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-
WOODFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLOOMINGTON...CHAMPAIGN...DANVILLE...
DECATUR...GALESBURG...HAVANA...JACKSONVILLE...LINCOLN...MATTOON...
PEORIA...SHELBYVILLE...SPRINGFIELD AND TAYLORVILLE
1116 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LINCOLN. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL IN LOWER CASE.