High Wind in Georgia, January 22 to 23, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
514 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
PLAN TO UPDATE PACKAGE WITHIN THE HOUR TO ALLOW WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN TO EXPIRE. REPORTS FROM COUNTIES INDICATE
THAT ONLY TWO OR THREE AREAS STILL HAVE SLICK SPOTS FROM THIS
MORNING...AND WINTER WEATHER HAS ENDED. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS MADISON
COUNTY WHERE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED AND SNOW HAS STARTED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2005

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO CROSS AREA TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD
FRONT IN E TN AT 18Z...WITH WEAKENING WEDGE BOUNDARY ALONG I-20.
WIND N OF WED FRONT VEERING TO SE. EXPECT FURTHER WEAKENING OF WEDGE
AN MINOR WARMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FROPA EARLY EVENING. MAY
HAVE TO CARRY SOME AFTERNOON WINTER WX AND WALL TO WALL HIGH POPS IN
ZONES BEFORE ANOTHER UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING.

WITH FROPA...PRECIP TYPE CHANGES RAPIDLY TO ALL SNOW...BUT DRY SLOT
SPREADS QUICKLY NE ALONG I-85. AREAS E OF NC FOOTHILLS WILL PROBABLY
NOT SEE SNOW THIS EVNING. STRONG SHORTWAVE/UPSLOPE COMPONENT SUPPORT
NW FLOW SNOW EVENT NC MTS. WILL CONTINUE WARNING TN LINE FOR 4
INCHES...MENTIONING HIGH END OF 6 IN N. WILL CONVERT WATCH KAVL AND
S BLUE RIDGE TO ADVISORY FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES. STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION
AND 850 MB WIND OF 60 KNOTS SUPPORT CONTINUATION OF WIND WARNING NC
MTS...AND WILL RAISE WIND ADVISORY TON/SUN NC FOOTHILLS...AND GA/SC
MTNS. NEED WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUNCOMBE/HAYWOOD AND N THROUGH NOON
SUNDAY FOR -5 TO -15. LAKE WIND ADVISRY TONIGHT REST OF AREA.

EXPECT NW FLOW EVENT TO RETREAT TO TN LINE BY SUN AFT AS MOISTURE
BEGIND TO DIMINISH...ENDING SNOW ADVISORY S BLUE RIDGE. SNOW TO END
TN LINE BY SUN EVENING. WENT LOWER WITH TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AND SUN
PER GUIDACNE TRENDS. WIND DIES OFF SUN NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WARMING
MON AS WIND BACKS TO W...WHICH CONTINUES INTO TUE. INCREASED CLOUDS
AGAIN ON TUE AS GFS TRIES TO BRING REMAINS OF ANOTHER FORN ACROSS
AREA...WHILE ETA SPREADS MOISTURE E ACROSS GULF STATES WITH S STREAM
SHORTWAVE.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE LATEST GFS SHOWS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THINK ANY LIGHT PRECIP IN THE MODEL IS
OVERDONE AT THIS POINT. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW BORDER
MTNS WED NIGHT. ANY HINT OF A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEKEND
APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED. TWEAKED TEMPS AND WINDS WITH LATEST NCEP
GUIDANCE AND TO MATCH NEIGHBORS.

AVIATION...
FREEZING PRECIP DMINISHING FROM SW TO NE AS TEMPS WARM IN S FLOW
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT MOVG THROUGH MTNS ATTM WITH WINDS
POISED TO INCREASE QUICKLY BEHIND IT IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND CAA.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL INCREASE TO VFR WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER FROPA...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED
TO KEEP MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...
DRYING TO BRING RH INTO LOW 20S SUN...BUT CONSULTATION WITH LAND
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS INDICATES THAT FUEL MOISTURES ARE ON THE MOIST
SIDE.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES GAZ010-017 THROUGH SUNDAY.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES GAZ018-026-028-029 THROUGH TONIGHT.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES NCZ034-035-054>056-066-067 THROUGH
     SUNDAY.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES NCZ037-038-057-068>072-
     082 THROUGH TONIGHT.
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES NCZ033-048>053-058-059-
     062>065 THROUGH SUNDAY.
  ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ZONES NCZ033-048>050-052-053 THROUGH
     SUNDAY MORNING.
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONES NCZ033-048>052-058 THROUGH
     SUNDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES NCZ053-059-062>065
     THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES SCZ001>003 THROUGH SUNDAY.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES SCZ004>014-019 THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&

SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
622 AM EST SAT JAN 22 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-231121-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
622 AM EST SAT JAN 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE CAEWSWGSP FOR MORE INFORMATION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A
TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. SEE CAEWSWGSP FOR DETAILS. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. THESE WINDS
COULD REACH DAMAGING LEVELS AT TIMES ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. PLEASE SEE CAENPWGSP FOR MORE INFORMATION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ALSO BE QUITE STRONG TONIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE FOOTHILLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

STRONG WINDS AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

LANE