Hail in Georgia, December 4, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
339 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWS COLD FRONT LYING ACROSS MOUNTAINS...
WHILE KGSP/KHTX RADARS SHOW EXTENSIVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
MOVING ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
NECESSITATE A HIGH PRECIP CHANCE...LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL...RIGHT OFF
THE BAT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO INCLUDE THUNDER AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE EVENING...OWING TO LIGHTNING DETECTED IN THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS N GA. RADAR TRENDS OFF TO THE WEST SUGGEST OUR PRECIP MODE
WILL BE CONVECTIVE FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM...SO THAT WILL BE
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES...ALL SORTS OF FORCING
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW. THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE SO MUCH GOING FOR IT THAT A CATEGORICAL POP
SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE COLD AIR TO
THE NORTH AND WEST WILL MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT. THE MODELS SUGGEST
THAT TIME WILL NOT BE UNTIL SUNRISE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. EVEN IF THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS OF THE
NRN MOUNTAINS MANAGE A CHANGE TO SOME MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW...IT SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE ENOUGH THAT IT DOES NOT
BEAR A MENTION IN THE ZFP. WILL GO WITH A COLD RAIN OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS BEGINNING A
DRAMATIC DROP OFF AFTER 09Z.

AS COLD AIR WRAPS AROUND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA...SNOW LEVELS
WILL RAPIDLY LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC MNTNS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
(WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS THE LOWEST VALLEYS)...EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO A SLEET/SNOW MIX BY MID-MORNING. A MAX IN H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWFA...
LIKELY PLACING THE RISING BRANCH OF THE ASSOCIATED AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION SQUARELY OVER THE NORTHERN MNTNS. EPV PROGS INDICATE
SOME INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS REGION OF FORCING...SO BANDED PRECIP
APPEARS TO BE A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WILL UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THIS AREA...WITH GENERALY 2-5 INCH AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. AS ONE MOVES LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THE DEPTH/TIMING OF
THE COLD AIR BECOMES VERY UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...AS STRONG NORTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
CYCLONE...RESULTANT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CREATE 2 RESPONSES: AN
ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF COOLING AND MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO THE STRONG
LARGE SCALE FORCING. THEREFORE...WILL ALSO UPGRADE THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILL ZONES TO A WARNING...BUT MAINLY STRESS LOCATIONS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE. FURTHER SOUTH...THE COLDER AIR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DELAYED...AS THE SURFACE LOW TRANSLATES ACROSS THE MIDLANDS.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE NC MNTNS TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500
FEET. PERIODS OF SLEET AND/OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS
OF THE CENTRAL MNTNS...AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE
THAT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACHIEVED IN THESE AREAS REMAINS VERY
LOW...SO WILL SIMPLY CARRY CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIP ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST ATTM. DRY AND COOL HIGH
PRESSURE IS GENERALLY IN CONTROL DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS OR SO. HOWEVER...AS IT HAS
BEEN APT TO DO OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...THE LATEST RUN HAS
DELAYED TIMING OF THIS POSSIBILITY TO DAY 7. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
DRY BUT COOL FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST
AN INVASION OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS SURFACE FRONT LAYS
DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD BRING MVFR CEILINGS
TO ALL TAF SITES ON A TEMPORARY BASIS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS...BUT TAFS
WILL KEEP ONLY VCSH. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED AT KAND FOR
THE ADDITION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

THE FORECAST SHOULD GO QUICKLY DOWNHILL LATER THIS EVENING AS A WAVE
DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 04Z AT THE VERY LATEST...AND
LIKELY SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO THAT. PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP AS ALL
MANNER OF FORCING MOVES IN DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WITH THAT IN MIND...EXPECT CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO CRASH
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z AT THE VERY LATEST. EXPECT SOME LOW
IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE THIS IN TAFS AND I DO NOT WANT TO MUDDY THE WATER WITH
ANOTHER TEMPO GROUP IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THE IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
NOT IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER THE END OF TAF PERIOD AT 18Z...PROBABLY SOME
TIME LATE MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES ACROSS THE MIDLANDS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR NCZ033-049-050 FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6
     AM TUESDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NCZ034-054-055 FROM 6 AM
     MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.
  ...SNOW ADVISORY FOR NCZ048-051>053-058 FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM
     MONDAY.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MOORE/LANE
LONG TERM...LANE
AVIATION...MOORE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
606 AM EST SUN DEC 4 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-051115-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
606 AM EST SUN DEC 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...THE MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN
UPSTATE AND THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR THESE AREAS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...AS
WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT AND
SPREAD INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THE
NORTHERN FOOTHILLS...AND EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE SNOW AND
SLEET COULD MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS SALISBURY...KANNAPOLIS
AND THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF CHARLOTTE.

FARTHER SOUTH...ACROSS THE UPSTATE...THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
PIEDMONT AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE ISOLATED
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-050400-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...
SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...MARION...
MORGANTON...HICKORY...SALISBURY...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE...COLUMBUS...RUTHERFORDTON...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...
GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...GREENVILLE...
SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...
LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
242 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2005

...STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...

MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WAS PROVIDING FUEL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...NORTH GEORGIA...INTO THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR...MAINLY
IN PIEDMONT SECTIONS...SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 85. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS...WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL A THREAT OVER PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS.
TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS TONIGHT ALONG AREA
INTERSTATES AS THE RAIN INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
PONDING OF WATER WILL INCREASE...AND THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL
FLOODING BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 IN NORTH
CAROLINA...SNOW WILL BECOME THE MAJOR CONCERN. AREAS FROM WEST OF
HICKORY TO THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE COULD BE AFFECTED BY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. IN MANY AREAS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET
OR SO COULD HAVE ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WARM
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY DELAY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
ON ROADS UNTIL WELL INTO THE DAY MONDAY. FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS
HOWEVER...HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...SOME SNOW IS
EXPECTED...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND MAINLY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
SOURCE FOR LATEST INFORMATION.

JONES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
506 PM EST SUN DEC 04 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             5 E GREENWOOD           34.19N 82.07W
12/04/2005  0.75 INCH        GREENWOOD          SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DEPUTY ON PATROL REPORTED LARGE HAIL ON AIRPORT ROAD
            BETWEEN THE CITY AND LAKE GREENWOOD

&&

JONES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
523 PM EST SUN DEC 04 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             CALHOUN FALLS           34.09N 82.60W
12/04/2005  1.00 INCH        ABBEVILLE          SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CSH