Hail and Damaging Wind in Mississippi, December 4, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1045 AM CST SUN DEC 4 2005

.DISCUSSION...NO REAL CHANGING IN THINKING. AS FRONT HAS ALL BUT
STALLED AROUND THE I 20 CORRIDOR. SOUTH OF THE FRONT TEMPS HAVE
WARMED UP NICELY TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S. THE JACKSON EVERS
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT EVEN WARMED BACK UP TO 70 AROUND 820 AM JUST
BEFORE THE FRONT PASSED. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALREADY STARTING TO
INCREASE AND THE SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA ACTIVITY IS RESPONDING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRTHN MS AND SESTRN AR. FULLY EXPECT THIS TO
INCREASE WITH GOOD COVERAGE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT
THERE STILL LIES SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS(70 DEGREE TEMPS OVER MID 60S DEWPOINTS) FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR IS LEADING TO A DECENTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE IN SE TX SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE EXIST ENOUGH SHEAR FOR A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AND SPC HAS MENTIONED THAT A WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER TODAY FOR OUR STHRN COUNTIES. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
HAIL AND WINDS. WILL HOLD OFF ON AN UPDATE RIGHT NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL MOST
OF THE DAY SOUTH(MEI/HBG) OF THE FRONT WHILE AREAS
NORTH(JAN/GLH/GWO) MAY DROP TO IFR STATUS AT TIMES. LOOK FOR SHRA
AND TSRA ACTIVITY TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ESPECIALLY AROUND
THE GLH/GWO/JAN/MEI. HBG MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE ACTIVITY REALLY GETS GOING. SHRA AND TSRA WILL CAUSE BOTH THE
VISBIES AND CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR STATUS AT TIMES. THERE IS ALSO
THE THREAT OF GR AT ALL SITES BUT ESPECIALLY NEAR MEI/HBG. TSRA
WINDS MAY ALSO BECOME A PROBLEM NEAR THOSE 2 SITES AS WELL.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

CAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
0452 AM CST SUN DEC 04 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
051052-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
0452 AM CST SUN DEC 04 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PORT GIBSON TO
MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI.  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING
WINDS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT
TOTALLY BE RULED OUT.

A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT FROM THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE AREA OF EAST MISSISSIPPI TO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BEFORE IT TRIGGERS THE
AFTERNOON ROUND OF  SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI. MODERATE WIND SHEAR WILL COMBINE WITH THE UNSTABLE
AIR TO HELP MAINTAIN THE STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHEN HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BECOME A GREATER CONCERN.

OTHERWISE...A LARGE AREA OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATER
TODAY WITH A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY REACHING THE
STRONG CATEGORY. SOME SMALL HAIL WILL THE PRIMARY RISK FROM THE
BASTROP LOUISIANA TO VICKSBURG...JACKSON AND PHILADELPHIA
MISSISSIPPI AREAS.

...FLOODING...
LOCAL DOWNPOURS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVER A 6 HOUR PERIOD COULD
RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

FOR TODAY...THE HEAVIER RAINS SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THEN FOR TONIGHT...THE HEAVY RAINS SHOULD
DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH AND ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE REGION SOUTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS TO WINONA TO WEST
POINT
MISSISSIPPI. THE RAINS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A THREE TO FIVE DAY STRETCH DURING MOST OF THIS WEEK OF WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S EACH
DAY SHOULD MODERATE LATE NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES COULD AVERAGE
SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR
EARLY DECEMBER.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TENSAS PARISH LOUISIANA...TO
SIMPSON AND LAUDERDALE COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI.
OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
833 AM CST SUN DEC 4 2005

LAZ007-041530-
MOREHOUSE-
833 AM CST SUN DEC 4 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

AT 830 AM A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS ENTERING MOREHOUSE PARISH. THIS
STORM WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL UP TO HALF AN INCH IN DIAMETER. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE CITY OF
BASTROP.

CAB