Cold in Colorado, December 4 to 19, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
541 PM MST SUN DEC 4 2005

UPDATED TO REMOVE WINTER STORM HEADLINE. SNOWFALL IS DECREASING AND A
GOOD CLEARING LINE IS SPREADING ACROSS MOFFAT COUNTY AT SUNSET...
THUS THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONES 4 AND 13 HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
NO OTHER CHANGES TO THIS AFD.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A COLD AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT OF MINUS 35 CELSIUS AT 500MB PER THE
MORNING GJT SOUNDING IS RESULTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CONVECTIVE
SNOWS THIS AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND
HEAVY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NEAR THE DIVIDE MAY PICK UP SOME
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXTENDING HEADLINES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WITH DIURNAL
CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WE HAVE THE MAKINGS FOR A COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. OROGRAPHIC SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE 1-3 INCH RANGE ACROSS FAVORED NORTHWEST SLOPES FOR 12 HOUR
PERIODS MONDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWING INCREASED POPS FOR
TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR BETTER FORCING AND A SHOT OF COLDER AIR AS
A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES OVERHEAD. LINDQUIST

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...WE TRANSITION INTO A
LESS ACTIVE PERIOD AS A MALLEABLE REX BLOCK FORMS ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WILL BE DRY WHILE THE NORTH
MAY STILL GET SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MUCH LESS THAN DURING THIS LAST
WEEK. THE 18Z MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM
SLOWING DOWN AND THE GFS SPEEDING UP.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: QUESTION REMAINS ON HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW. THE
GFS IS FURTHER WEST AND SLOWER WITH THE NAM FASTER AND CLOSER TO THE
EC/UK...AND FAVORED HERE. NW-FACING SLOPES OROGRAPHIC SNOWS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE NORTHERN MTNS AS COLD ADVECTION ENDS AND
NEAR SURFACE LAYER DRIES AND STABILIZES. IF GFS TIMING IS BETTER SNOW
MAY LAST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THIS IS NOT REFLECTED IN THIS
FORECAST.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY: CLOSED LOW FORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND SLOWLY
SINKS SOUTH AND FILLS THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN OREGON
TO BRITISH COLUMBIA WHILE OPEN DISTURBANCES CLIMB OVER AND DIVE
PASSING TO OUR NORTH. THESE STAND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SETTING OFF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MTNS BUT WITH WARM ADVECTION AND A LACK OF
JET SUPPORT...HAVE PULLED THE MENTION FOR NOW. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY MODIFY UP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY.  RAMEY

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.CO...NONE.
.UT...NONE.

&&

TAL/JOE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
546 PM MST SUN DEC 4 2005

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-060100-
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GRAND VALLEY-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-
546 PM MST SUN DEC 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF ONLY
1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHEST ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COLORADO...AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN UTAH. MANY ROADWAYS WILL REMAIN ICY AND
SNOWPACKED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON
MONDAY...THEN SPREAD TO OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT NEW SNOW AND WIND INFORMATION.

CUOCO