Blizzard in Alaska, November 16 to 17, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AST WED NOV 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...GFS MODEL OVERALL INTIALIZED BEST AND WILL BE USED IN
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGES WITH ADJUSTMENTS. GFS MODEL HAS SETTLED
DOWN SOME IN LONGER RANGE FORECASTS WITH NEXT STORM TO MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AK PEN THU NIGHT.

500MB...MEAN TROUGH POSITION CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND TO
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THOUGH SAT. NEAR CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS
SOUTH OF THE AK PEN LATE SUN. IN RESPONSE...RIDGE BUILDS OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND CENTRAL MAINLAND. RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA WEAKENS...BUT CONTINUES TO HOLD ON THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

.SURFACE
EAST..GFS THERMAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION REASONABLE. GENERAL PATTERN
IS TO CONTINUE TO WARM THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. INFUSION OF WARM AIR INTO SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF WILL TEND TO CAUSE
DEVELOPING SYSTEMS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH TO MOVE FURTHER WEST OF
TRACK. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. SO WILL SEE
MORE RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHCENTRAL OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO RATHER THEN STRAIGHT SNOW. FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL
THIS MORNING HAS A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WHICH IS A LITTLE AHEAD OF
TRACK. ORGANIZED MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ON THU
WITH AS LOW FROM AK PEN TRACKS TO THE KENAI PEN. AGAIN LOOK FOR RAIN
AND SOME SNOW(LOW RATIO) WITH THIS SYSTEM. DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF
THE AK PEN LATE THU MOVES TO OVER KODIAK ISLAND FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT
WILL SEE SOME STORM FORCE WINDS OVER SOME GULF COASTAL MARINE AREAS
AHEAD OF SYSTEM LATE THU/FRI. WOULD EXPECT MAINLY RAIN ALONG GULF AND
KENAI PEN...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW INLAND. ALSO LOOK FOR STRONG GAP
WINDS AND DOWNSLOPE TO LEE OF CHUGACH/TALKEETNA.

.WEST...MOISTURE WITH LOW MOVING N ALONG AK PEN SHOULD DIMINISH OVER
BRISTOL BAY THU AS CENTER MOVES INTO THE KENAI PEN. WARM AIR WILL
CONTINUE OVER EASTERN BRISTOL BAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE FOLLOWED BY
COOLING ON THU. FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL LIKELY TO HOLD BRISTOL BAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF SW AK WILL CONTINUE ON COLD SIDE. BRISK
NORTH FLOW WILL HOLD OVER THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS THROUGH FRI.

.WEST...
.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE CURRENT PACKAGE.

RMC NOV 05