Damaging Winds in West Virginia, November 16, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
245 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...

AT THIS HOUR...THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED OVER COLUMBUS.  THIS IS
NOTICEABLE ON THE RADAR AS A VERY THIN LINE BEHIND THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION.  MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA AT
12Z...SO HAVE KEPT THE HIGH POPS THERE.  THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
REMAINED AT A MINIMUM...AND AS THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND
CROSSES OUR CWA THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DECREASE.
HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
HAS BEEN NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
COMMON.  OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY FALL AFTER THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES.  THE FRONT IS TIMED TO PASS INTO WV SHORTLY AFTER
09Z...AND THEN EXIT OUR CWA TO THE EAST JUST AFTER 14Z.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 1250 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005)

AVIATION...

CONTINUE TO SLIDE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...SLOWLY GOING TO
MVFR NEAR DAWN.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME REMAINING ACROSS
OUR REGION...BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES.  WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS WILL ALSO REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 621 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...

HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP EARLIER THIS EVENING...TO SLOW DOWN THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  THIS LATEST UPDATE
IS TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR WESTERN CWA UNTIL
05Z...MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 327 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.  COMBINATION OF SUNSHINE
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.  AS OF 1 PM...KBKW HAD ALREADY SET A NEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE.

THE LATEST WEATHER MAP SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR KSTL WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO TEXAS.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH AND AS IT DOES...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RACE EAST.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST.  DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE.  HOWEVER...
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL.  WHILE SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE
QUITE STRONG...EXPECT BEST SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR
AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
EAST...TURNING INTO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS...WITH
MIXED PRECIP EVERYWHERE ELSE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN TURNING INTO
JUST SNOW OR FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN QUICKLY INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND REMAIN STEADY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NAM AND GFS
SHOW DESCENT COLD ADVECTION AT H85 WITH TEMPS IN THE -8 TO -10C BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...KEPT LOWS BELOW ABOUT 7 DEGREES BELOW
FREEZING...EVEN COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION CLEARING THE SKIES BY THURSDAY EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 209 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005)

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

AS SHOWN BY ALL THE MODELS...THE PATTERN OF AN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. CONTINUES THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL
GENERALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AS SHORT WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TIMING OF THESE FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES IS
DIFFICULT IN THIS PATTERN...IT APPEARS ONE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
COMES ACROSS SUNDAY AND ANOTHER BY LATER TUESDAY. EXCEPT FOR
SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE NOT IDEAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS IN THIS PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
PERIOD WILL SUNDAY...AND MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS SNOW SHOWERS.
THE GENERAL THEME WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S FOR THE LOWLANDS...COLDER
IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...KF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
435 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

VAZ003-004-WVZ015-016-018>020-024>040-046-047-160945-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-KANAWHA-ROANE-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-
LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-
WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
435 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013-014-017-
160945-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-WIRT-
435 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
237 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

WVZ019-027>029-160845-
RITCHIE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARRISVILLE...PENNSBORO...CLAY...
SUTTON...GASSAWAY...BURNSVILLE...GLENVILLE
237 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...

WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN RITCHIE...GILMER...BRAXTON...
AND CLAY COUNTIES.

AT 235 AM...A LINE OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
RITCHIE...GILMER...BRAXTON...AND CLAY COUNTIES. THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS WAS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SMALL LIMBS OR DEBRIS ON ROADWAYS.