High Surf in Hawaii, November 16 to 18, 2005

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED NOV 16 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ON FRIDAY. THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL LAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA REGIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN THE FOCUS OF THE SHOWERS WILL SHIFT TO THE
INTERIORS OF THE ISLANDS AND MAUKA AREAS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1033 MB HIGH LOCATED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS
RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE AFFECTING THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE RIDGE HAS SETTLED OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
THIS MORNING. QUICKSCAT PASS THIS PAST EVENING CLEARLY SHOWED THE
RIDGE JUST OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS HAS ALLOW MODERATE
TRADES TO BUILD INTO THE ALOHA STATE. EXPECT TODAY FOR THE TRADES TO
CONTINUE AT MODERATE LEVELS. HAVE RAISED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE USUAL LOCATIONS OF MAALAEA BAY AND BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST
WATERS. TONIGHT HOWEVER THE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
ISLAND CHAIN AS IT IS PUSHED SOUTHEAST BY A DEVELOPING NORTH CENTRAL
PACIFIC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT. THIS LOW QUICKLY HEADS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS ALASKA AND THE FRONT MAKES VERY LITTLE PROGRESS ON
PUSHING THE RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS. IT DOES NUDGE IT A BIT THEREFORE
HAVE DIMINISHED THE TRADES TO LIGHT LEVELS ON THURSDAY. THE
REMAINING SHEAR-LINE WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER
STRONG DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES ONTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
STAGE ON FRIDAY. AGAIN THIS LOW TOO WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AND
ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS ALASKA. A STRONG PACIFIC JET IS
THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE LOWS. THE FRONT/SHEAR-LINE FROM THIS
SYSTEM SHOVES THE SURFACE RIGHT OVER THE MAIN ISLAND CHAIN FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE SHEAR-LINE GETS CLOSE TO KAUAI BUT NOT QUITE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE LONG RANGE
GFS150 DOES PUSH A FRONT FINALLY THROUGH KAUAI AND OAHU. THE GFS OUT
THIS FAR DOES TRY AND OVERDUE THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS. WILL NOT GET
TOO EXCITED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WILL KEEP THE LIGHT WIND PATTERN
GOING.

THIS MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS A FEW TRADE SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
FEWER AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL TRADE SHOWER PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE WITH MORE
SHOWERS AT NIGHT...AND FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA REGIONS. AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND THIS WILL SET UP LOCAL
LAND AND SEA BREEZE SHOWERS. MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND MOUNTAIN
REGIONS. THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR ENHANCED SHOWERS. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD WITH THIS FORECAST RUN. EACH ONE OF THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUPPORTS THE TRANSITION BACK INTO A CONVECTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF DO DISAGREE ON THE DEPTH
AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC...HOWEVER THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH ARE HANDLED IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT. GOING TO SIDE WITH THE GFS THIS RUN IT HAS BEEN DOING A
FAIR JOB LATELY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTHWEST SWELL IS COMING IN A BIT FASTER THAN
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SHOULD KEEP BELOW WARNING LEVELS FOR TODAY. WILL
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AND KEEP A WATCH ON IT FOR ANY CHANGES. THE
PARADE OF LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC SHOULD KEEP THE SURF
UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO WEEK. LATEST RUN OF THE WAVEWATCH
III MODEL IS HINTING FOR A LARGE SURF EVENT POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY...NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES MOST ISLANDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MAALAEA BAY AND BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
&&

PROTON