Damaging Wind in North Carolina, June 23, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1050 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2004

.UPDATE...
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. BASICALLY...
ADJUSTED SKY COVER PER LATEST VISIBLE AND RUC40 MSLP SOULTION. TEMPS
LOOK GOOD...EVEN CONSIDERING ADDTIONAL INSOLATION EXPECTED EAST
OF THE FOOTHILLS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 3K AND
4K J/KG IN THE EASTERN ZONES AS LONG AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER
70S...WHICH THEY SHOULD...SO WILL ANTICIPATE DECENT AFTERNOON SEVERE
POTENTIAL AS SURFACE WAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL POLAR VORTEX TO PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS ONTARIO...WITH
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN USA. MODEL TIMING
OF IMPULSES IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...THOUGH SOME DISCREPANCIES
REMAIN ON STRENGHT OF SYSTEMS. COLD FRONT MOVING S ACROSS TN VALLEY
TO SLOW AS IT APPROACHES TN/NC LINE. MODELS MOVE SURFACE WAVE ALONG
FTON TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH EXACT TIMING OF WAVE STILL IN
QUETION. WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGH END OF LIKELY
REST OF AREA. SOME CONCERN FOR A SHADOWING EFFECT FOOTHILLS IF ETA
WAVE VERIFIES AND A WRAP AROUND NW FLOW DEVLOPES...BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEPICT. BY LATE TONIGHT DRIER AIR WORKS INTO AREA
FROM NW IN WAKE OF EXITING LOW. WILL LIMIT POPS THU AND THU NIGHT TO
FAR S...SPREADING BACK TO N FRI AS TRAILING FRONT RETURNS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TODAY NEAR YESTERDAY VALUES...THEN WARMER THU IN WEAK
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND COOLER AGAIN FRI AS MOISTURE RETURNS. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES NEAR PERSISTENCE.

NEXT FRONT ARRIVES SAT...CONVERGING WITH MOISTURE FROM OLD WARM
FRONT...AND REMAINING NEAR AREA THROUGH TUE. THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTS
AT LEAST DIURNAL POPS THROUGH EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES UNDER CLOUD COVER...AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN MOISTURE LADEN AIR.

WSW FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF 400-1200 FOOT CIGS SCATTERED ACROSS THE CWFA.
THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREAS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
UPSTATE...THEN N INTO THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND SRN NC FOOTHILLS.
THESE LOW CIGS APPEAR TO BE THE RESULT OF LIFT INDUCED BY OUTFLOW
BNDRY FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION OVER GA. TYPICALLY IN THESE
SITUATIONS THE LOW CLOUDS NEVER REALLY FILL IN...NOR DO THEY
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. THEREFORE HAVE CARRIED FEW 1000 IN ALL THE NON
MTN TAFS THROUGH SUNRISE. HAVE GONE WITH A BRIEF OVC 1200 AT GSP
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. AT AVL CIGS WERE VERY LOW AT 0600 UTC. HAVE
KEPT LIFR CIGS AND 2SM VSBY FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HRS...BUT HAVE THEN
IMPROVED CIGS AND VSBYS SOME AFTER 8 UTC. WL CARRY A TEMPO FOR TSRA
AT AVL TDA FROM 2000-2400 UTC. PUBLIC FCSTR IS GOING CAT POPS IN THE
MTNS...AND FEEL THAT TEMPO IS WARRANTED LATE AFTN AS SFC FRONT WL BE
NEARLY ATOP AVL.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
558 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-240951-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
558 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE OR PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1220 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-232200-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
1220 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2004

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE
FRONT...JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE LATER TODAY.

RECENT HEAVY RAIN HAS LEFT THE GROUND SATURATED IN PARTS OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THE COMBINATION OF
SATURATED GROUND AND WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR PART OF THE
AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WHEN IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION.

KRENTZ