Hail and Damaging Winds in Minnesota, June 23, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
230 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MB
LOW/TROUGH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL SWING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...MOVING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...TO EAST OF
JAMES BAY BY 00Z SAT. THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL STAY
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THOUGH...WITH RIDGING NOT LOOKING TO WORK IN
UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE FLOW...WITH THE STRONGEST ONE FOR THE LOCAL AREA COMING
LATER TONIGHT AND ON THU MORNING.

THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH WILL BRING A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF COLDER AIR. 850 MB
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 4 C BY 00Z FRI. NOT A LOT OF CAPE
TO WORRY ABOUT TONIGHT...BUT THE SHEAR IS STRONG...AROUND 50 KTS IN
THE 0-3 KM LAYER. MOISTURE ISN/T ALL THAT GREAT THOUGH...WITH THE RH
FIELDS KEEPING THE BEST SATURATION FROM 700MB AND ON UP.
CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SHOT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN MN/NORTHERN WI TONIGHT...AND WITH SUCH STRONG
SHEAR...A FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. THE TAIL OF THE VORT
MAX LOOKS TO WORK WITH THE TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REST ACROSS NORTHERN IA/NORTHERN ILL ON THU MORNING.
FORCING ISN/T AS STRONG HERE...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY
DECENT SHOT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...PERHAPS A STORM...FOR THE
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE 500 MB THROUGH ON THU
NIGHT...SPINNING ACROSS THE U.P. OF MICH BEFORE MOVING EAST. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BRUNT OF THIS WAVE/S INFLUENCE SHOULD STAY NORTH OF
THE AREA. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
TO BUILD EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH...SO DESPITE ANTICIPATED
SUNSHINE...SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME CRACKING 70 FOR
HIGHS.

SO IN A NUTSHELL...A SHOT FOR SOME PCPN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING...BETTER TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...SOUTH IN THE MORNING. THEN
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE...KEEPING IT MOSTLY DRY
BUT COOL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

GFS/ECMWF/DGEX CONTINUE TO POINT TO A CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH THE TROUGH GIVING WAY TO SOME 500 MB
RIDGING BY MIDWEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...THEN
SLIDE EAST LATE ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY FOR THE
A CHANGE...WITH A GRADUAL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS
THE HIGH KICKS EAST. HOWEVER...THE RETURN OF THE WARMTH COULD ALSO
BRING BACK THE CHANCE FOR PCPN FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.

 &&

.ARX...WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

RIECK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
315 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-241100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
315 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE REMAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...BUT THE AREA OF CONCERN HAS SHIFTED FROM
THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.  THE MAIN THREAT AREA WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM CHARLES CITY IOWA...TO LA CROSSE...TO TOMAH AND
NECEDAH WISCONSIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES OF WIND SPEED AND MOISTURE INDICATE THAT
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
AND WITH THE COOL AIR IN PLACE...LARGE HAIL IS ALSO OF CONCERN.
THE MOST LIKELY TIMES FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE OUTLOOK AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 PM THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AS A MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE PLAINS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
PUSHES MOIST AIR UP AND OVER THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITIES WILL
PRECLUDE THOSE STORMS FROM REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. WITH
THE STORMS ELEVATED IN NATURE...ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY WITH QUIET AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

MW