Tornadoes and Hail in North Dakota, June 23, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
225 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

UNSEASONABLY COOL PATTERN TO CONTINUE...BUT JUST HOW COOL IS THE
MAIN QUESTION ESPECIALLY FOR TONIGHT.  FELT ETA TOO STRONG WITH FRI
WAVE SO WENT CLOSER TO GFS/CANADIAN.

.SHORT TERM...
DEEP TROUGH OVER NRN PLAINS AND SCNTRL CANADA WILL DEEPEN EVEN MORE
TODAY AS HEART OF THE 850-500 MB UPPER COLD POOL DROPS SOUTH INTO
ERN ND AND NRN MN THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.  UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
SFC COLD FRONT AND WK LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST THRU ERN ND DURING THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS AND THRU NW/WCNTRL MN THIS AFTN.  COLDEST
500 MB TEMPS (-24 TO -26C) WILL BE OVER NW MN...ALONG WITH CENTER OF
VORT...AND LEFT FRONT OF 300 MB 100 KT JET.  THESE COMBINED WITH SFC
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO GENERATE
SOME THUNDER THIS AFTN.  SOME HAILERS VERY POSSIBLE AS ETA BJI
SOUNDING SHOWS FREEZING LEVELS NR 6300 FT.

CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY UPPER 50S FAR NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH...AND
THESE SHOULD BE REACHED.  THUS EXPECT QUITE A BIT CU ALL AREAS
TODAY.  KEPT ISOLD -SHRA ERN ND DUE TO THIS.  UPSTREAM RADARS IN SRN
CANADA SHOWS SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH FRONT.

FOR TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL STRONGLY HINGE OF CLEARING AND WIND.
LOOKS LIKE MAIN SFC HIGH TO BE ANCHORED OVER CNTRL SASK WITH RIDGE
INTO ERN ND.  WOULD EXPECT THIS AREA TO SEE GOOD DEAL OF CLEARING
TONIGHT.  NW MN MORE IFFY AS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN STRONGER
CYCLONIC FLOW THRU THE NIGHT...AND NEXT VORT MAX APPROACHES THE
MN/MANITOBA BORDER BY 12Z THU.  ATTM THINK ENOUGH CLEARING TO OCCUR
LIKE PAST NIGHTS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP...AND WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF
-2 TO -4 RANGE MANY SITES SHOULD SEE SOME 30S...THOUGH THINK
ANYTHING BLO 35 WILL BE TOUGH.  WINDS ALSO MAY HOLD UP A
BIT...ESPECIALLY NW MN.  RECORDS WILL BE IN JEPARDY THURSDAY
MORNING. PRESENT RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY 6/24 INCLUDE...41/1967 AT
THE GFK AIRPORT...40/1958 FOR GRAND FORKS CITY UND/NWS...39/1942 IN
FARGO...AND 38/1958 IN DEVILS LAKE.  WILL HOLD OFF ON FROST MENTION
AND ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW AS JUST DEPENDS ON DEGREE OF CLEARING/WIND.

VORT WILL PASS THRU NRN MN THURSDAY...WITH -26 TO -28C 500 MB
TEMPS.  WILL ADD MENTION OF -SHRA THURSDAY TO NW MN IN AREA OF
GREATEST 85H MOISTURE...BUT COULD SEE ISOLD -SHRA MOST ANYWHERE DUE
TO COLD AIR ALOFT.

YET ANOTHER VORT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TO AFFECT MAINLY NRN MN.
WILL ADD MENTION OF -SHRA TO THIS AREA TOO.  ETA MORE AGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING PCPN TO MOST OF THE FCST AREA FRIDAY...BUT GFS/CANADIAN
HOLDS IT MAINLY BDE-BJI EAST.  WILL SIDE WITH THIS SOLN FOR NOW.

.LONGER TERM...
NO CHANGES MADED.  NEW GFS SOLN APPEARS TO FOLLOW CURRENT FCST WELL
WITH HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND AND WARMING BACK UP TO NR NORMAL
LEVELS BY TUE-WED NEXT WEEK. KEPT IT DRY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE
MN...NONE.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
620 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-231420-
BARNES-BENSON-CASS-CAVALIER-CLAY-EAST BECKER-EAST MARSHALL-
EAST OTTER TAIL-EAST POLK-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-GRAND FORKS-
GRANT-GRIGGS-HUBBARD-KITTSON-LAKE OF THE WOODS-MAHNOMEN-NELSON-
NORMAN-NORTH BELTRAMI-NORTH CLEARWATER-PEMBINA-PENNINGTON-RAMSEY-
RANSOM-RED LAKE-RICHLAND-ROSEAU-SARGENT-SOUTH BELTRAMI-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-STEELE-TOWNER-TRAILL-WADENA-WEST BECKER-
WEST MARSHALL-WEST OTTER TAIL-WEST POLK-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-WILKIN-
620 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ISOLATED HAIL UP TO ONE
INCH MAY OCCUR.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING...REACHING THE RED RIVER DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS AND
THEN MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA IN THE
AFTERNOON.  VERY COLD AIR WILL BE PRESENT IN THE UPPER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THIS SYSTEM MAKING HAIL A THREAT FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY FORM.  THE THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL END BY 4 PM.

TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
VARIABLE OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THERE WILL BE A NORTHWEST
WIND OF 5 TO 15 MPH.  WHILE LOCAL AREAS SAW FROST WEDNESDAY
MORNING...MORE WIDESPREAD LOCATIONS MAY SEE FROST THURSDAY MORNING
IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR LONG ENOUGH AND WINDS DIMINISH. THERE REMAINS
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ON THIS...SO NO ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED SO
FAR. STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECAST UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

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