High Wind in Alaska, November 13, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM AST SAT NOV 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. GFS WITH SOME MODIFICATION
WILL BE USED FOR FORECAST PACKAGES.

980S MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA IS FULLY OCCLUDED AND
STACKED. EXPECT THIS CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
SOUTHEAST. DEVELOPING LOW FURTHER SOUTH IS MOVING UNDER THE LOWER
RIGHT QUAD OF THE JET AND SHOULD RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE NE. NCEP
MODELS AND UKMET ARE FAIRLY CLOSE IN MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...BUT THE
UKMET IS MUCH DEEPER THAN THE FORMER. EXPECT UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
VALIDATE UMKET SURFACE PRESSURES. CENTER TO BE SOUTHWEST OF SITKA SUN
AM WITH A PRESSURE IN THE MID 960S. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN AND
MOVE INTO CANADA AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL/NORTH GULF TONIGHT AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER AREA AND SOME CLOUD BREAKS FORM.

970 MB LOW NEAR SHEMYA IS MOVING RAPIDLY NE AND IS WELL FORECAST BY
NCEP/UKMET MODELS. EXPECT CENTER WILL BE NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND
IN THE UPPER 950S TO LOWER 960S SUN AFTERNOON. GOOD COLD ADVECTION
ON BACKSIDE OF CENTER WILL ENHANCE WINDS AND SHOULD PRODUCE WARNING
LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE TODAY AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT ALONG FROM AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH.
EXPECT THIS CENTER TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AK PEN AND MOVE TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE KENAI PEN WITH A PRESSURE IN THE LOWER 980S MON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONES 185 AND 191.
MARINE...STORMS: 6B, 12A,12A1,12B,13A,13B,15.
         GALES: 5A,5B,6A,8, AND 14.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC NOV 04