Heavy Snow in Texas, November 13, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
452 AM CST SAT NOV 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MADE FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HAVING SECOND THOUGHTS ABOUT
THE ABUNDANT SNOW FALL FOR TODAY. DEW POINTS STAYING RELATIVELY
WARM/CONSTANT DUE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. SURFACE NOT
ABLE TO ADVECT IN DRIER AIR UNLESS A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT
BEGINS TO FORM. OR...IF ATMOSPHERE COULD START SQUEEZING OUT SOME
PRECIP THEN COOLING WOULD TAKE PLACE. OBS IN NW PORTION OF
PANHANDLES JUST NOW SHOWING SNOW...WITH NORTH EASTERN NEW MEXICO
ALSO COMING IN WITH REPORTS OF SNOW. SO APPEARS ALL HOPE IS NOT YET
LOST...JUST LOOKS LIKE TIMING IS ABOUT 4-6 HOURS TO FAST. 6Z MESOETA
COMING IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN GFS AND NGM WHICH HAS BEEN THE
GENERAL PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. ORIGINALLY THOUGHT
ETA WAS TOO SLOW...BUT NOW IT APPEARS ETA HAS BETTER HANDLE ON
TIMING. GOOD NEWS IS ALL MODELS STILL PUMPING IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4-5 INCHES NEAR AMARILLO...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. GFS
REMAINS THE STRONGEST OF THE MODELS BUT WITH EACH SNOW-LESS HOUR
THAT GOES BY THAT SOLUTION IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME HIGHLY SATURATED UP TO
200MB AROUND 15Z...THINKING COLDER DRIER AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WILL ENTRAIN DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS THE COLUMN BECOMES MOIST.
THAT WOULD MEAN THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL SOMETIME AFTER NOON.
SO...KEPT HEAVY SNOW WARNING AND SNOW ADVISORY AS IS.

AFTER TODAY...AGAIN STUCK WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT TOWARD MEXICO ON SUNDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION IN LOW AND
MID LEVELS SHOULD CHANGE ANY PRECIP INTO RAIN AFTER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONTINUED TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED FROM UPPER LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AND CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST UP UNTIL
TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE SLIGHTLY ON THE EJECTION TIMING OF
UPPER LOW. DGEX RUNNING A LITTLE FASTER THAN GFS AT THIS TIME...BUT
MODELS AGREE THAT LOW WILL STAY SOUTH OF PANHANDLES. EURO PULLS THE
LOW DIRECTLY OVER PANHANDLES ON WEDS AND THROUGH THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. THINKING WITH EITHER THE MORE EASTERLY PROGRESSION OF THE
GFS/DGEX OR NORTHEASTERLY PROGRESSION OF THE EURO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ARE IN ORDER...AND UPPED POPS TO CHANCE LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLES. BY THURSDAY THROUGH REST OF FORECAST PERIOD LOST
CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. GFS AND
EURO ARE PICKING UP ON SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES THAT COULD PASS
THROUGH PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY...BUT LEFT A DRY FORECAST THINKING
SHORT WAVES WILL NOT DROP AS FAR SOUTH AS PROJECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO     37  29  39  31 /  80  80  50  50
BEAVER       39  29  40  33 /  80  80  40  50
BOISE CITY   35  26  37  29 /  80  80  40  50
BORGER       38  30  39  33 /  80  80  50  50
BOYS RANCH   37  28  38  32 /  80  80  50  50
CANYON       37  29  39  31 /  80  80  60  60
CLARENDON    39  31  42  35 /  80  80  60  60
DALHART      35  27  37  30 /  80  80  40  50
GUYMON       37  28  38  32 /  80  80  40  50
HEREFORD     35  29  38  31 /  80  80  60  60
LIPSCOMB     39  30  43  33 /  80  80  40  50
PAMPA        38  31  40  32 /  80  80  50  50
SHAMROCK     40  32  45  36 /  80  80  50  50
WELLINGTON   40  33  46  37 /  80  80  60  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016-017.
     SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ003>005-008>010-013-018.
OK...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ001-002.
     SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ003.

&&

15/14

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
600 AM CST SAT NOV 13 2004

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-131900-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
600 AM CST SAT NOV 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

A HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SNOW
ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE MILE AT
TIMES IN THE HEAVY SNOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE
PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY PUSHES TOWARDS WEST TEXAS.

GOEHRING