Winter Storm and Heavy Snow in West Virginia, December 13 to 14, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
404 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2003

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404 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2003

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

NOT MUCH MODEL CHANGES IN OVERALL SCENARIO.  SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW SHOULD GENERATE TYPICAL WARM WEDGE AFFECT
OVERNIGHT.  H85 FLOW IS A BIT MODEST...JUST 30 KTS OR SO.  WITH AIR
MAS RATHER COLD AND DRY TO BEGIN WITH...WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE A LITTLE
MORE IN THE WAY OF FROZEN AND FREEZING PRECIPITATION THAN WITH OTHER
SYSTEMS OF THIS NATURE.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SURFACE AND UPPER AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE
TOOLS.  ALSO WROTE SOME NEW CODE TO ISOLATE ICE ACCUMULATION.
RESULTS OF THE TOOLS SUGGEST MAINTAINING WARNINGS AND EXPANDING
ADVISORIES FARTHER SOUTH...TO INCLUDE ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS.  TOOLS PUT OUT UP TO TWO TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT THINK A TENTH OR TWO SHOULD COVER IT.

IN THE EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...PRECIPITATION
WILL BE PRIMARILY SNOW...BUT THE AMOUNT WILL NOT QUITE MAKE WARNING
CRITERIA.  USED HPC QPF WHEN RUNNING THE TOOLS...IT APPEARED TO BE A
REASONABLE BLEND OF THE MODELS AND A DECENT REFLECTION OF THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL FACTORS IN THIS AREA.  DID THINK THE ICE ACCUMULATION
ON THE WWE GRAPHICS WERE A BIT MUCH BUT WITH SOUNDINGS IN MARGINAL
AREA FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
WORTH MENTIONING WITH REGARD TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IN GENERAL.

SUN NGT ON -->

SFC LO CONTS TO TREK UP ATLANTIC COAST...CYCLONIC FLOW IN
CONJUNCTION WITH MID LEVEL TROF PASSING SPELL UPSLOPE SN FOR THE
AREA.  H10-H8 THKNS SUPPORT ALL SNOW WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF 3-5
INCHES IN WVZ046>47...1-3 ELSEWHERE.  PRECIP TAPERS OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN SERN OH WITH SN CONT THRU 15Z MON IN EKN VCNTY.

SFC FLOW VEERS AND WE GET A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF DRY WX MON NGT AND
MOST OF TUES.  A RAPID RECOVERY IN MAXT FROM MON TO TUES BY ROUGHLY
10 TO 15 DEGS...THANKS TO DEEPENING SRLY FLOW.  FULL LATITUDE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROF BRINGS NEXT WX SYSTEM IN BY MIDWEEK.  UPPED
POPS TO LKLY WITH FROPA TUES NGT.  EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUM
SN BEHIND THIS FEATURE...2-4 MTNS...1-2 ELSW.

HIGHLY AMPLITUDE PATTERN FOR EXTENDED PRODUCING AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN.  DAYS 3 AND 4 ECMWF/UKMET FARTHER W WITH SFC TRACK THAN
GFS...WHICH PREFERS COASTAL DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY EVENING.  FOLLOWED
GFS SLTN WITH RA --> SN DURING THE DAY WED WITH STRONG CAA IN THE BL
(H8 TEMPS FALL 12C)...THUS EXPECT FALLING TEMPS WITH A CHANGE OVER.
MID LEVEL WAVES AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING...WARRANT CHC POPS TO CONT
INTO THUR...WITH LAST OF THE SW-- DEPARTING MTNS BY 06Z FRI.  NO
HEAVY ACCUM FORECAST ATT...PERHAPS ADV TYPE AMNTS IN THE NRN MTNS.

DAY 6 AND 7 A WARM UP WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THANKS TO A TRANSITORY
RIDGE.  MAXES SHOULD REACH NEAR CLIMO VALUES FRI AND SAT WITH SRLY
FLO.  CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES SAT AFTN...DUE TO TIMING ISSUES WITH
SYSTEMS OF THIS NATURE...ELECTED TO HOLD OFF ON POPS FOR NOW.
PREFER COOLER NUMBER THOUGH THUR NGT AND MEX NUMBERS FRI ON.

&&

.RLX WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 700 PM EST SATURDAY UNTIL 400 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR ZONES WVZ038...WVZ046>047.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 700 PM EST SATURDAY UNTIL 400 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR ZONES WVZ006>011-014>020-027>032-033>037-039-040.

VA...INTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 700 PM EST SATURDAY UNTIL 400 PM
EST SUNDAY FOR ZONES VAZ003-004.
KY...INTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 700 PM EST SATURDAY UNTIL 400 PM
EST SUNDAY FOR ZONES KYZ101>103.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 700 PM EST SATURDAY UNTIL 400 PM
EST SUNDAY FOR ZONES OHZ066>067...OHZ075>076...OHZ083>087.

&&

TRM/29
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1100 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2003

NO AFTERNOON UPDATE PLANNED...WITH BULK OF WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY LIGHT AND SPOTTY IF IT REACHES THE GROUND AT ALL TODAY.
HIGHS TODAY APPEAR ON OR CLOSE.

WILL LEAVE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AS ARE PENDING ANALYSIS OF 12Z
DATA FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

TRM
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440 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2003

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
TODAY IS THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE WEST THROUGH OUT THE DAY.  HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE
ABOUT 12 MORE HOURS OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE.  WITH LITTLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY...OTHER THAN A
LITTLE EARLY THIS MORNING...HAVE GONE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH MEANS RUNNING CLOSER TO THE GFS.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINTER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MODELS AS THE ETA IS BRINGING WARMER AIR MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE
GFS AND IS ALSO FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE LOW UP THE COAST.  AT THIS
POINT...CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN IS TO GO
SLOWER...WHICH IS WHAT THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT.  THE ONE
ADJUSTMENT THAT WILL BE MADE WILL BE TO PUSH THE WARM WEDGE OF AIR
AT AROUND 850 MB FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS  THAN THE GFS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION
REMAINING MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS NRN WV AND SE OHIO AND FURTHER
SOUTH...EXPECT A MIX BAG ACROSS EASTERN KY THROUGH THE HTS AREA.
FROM WILLIAMSON TO CRW...EXPECT MORE CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR AS THIS
WILL BE IN THE HEART OF THE WARM WEDGE...POSSIBLY BECOMING ALL RAIN
HEADING TOWARD DAWN.  IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE NRN MOUNTAINS SHOULD
REMAIN ALL SNOW.  TOWARD BKW AND AREAS SOUTH...SOME OF THE WARM AIR
ALOFT SHOULD CAUSE MORE OF A MIX BAG.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION THEN BECOME HOW MUCH SNOW/ICE...ETC. THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF QPF ARE EXPECTED FROM THE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD AS
THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE REGION IN TWO PIECES.  THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL MOVE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN PA.  THE SURFACE FEATURES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE
FROM THE GULF COAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NEW ENGLAND WEDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS.  ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...THERE IS A GOOD BIT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS LA.  IF THIS PERSIST...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ROB
ANY MOISTURE TRYING TO HEAD NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS IS
QUITE COMMON AND AT THIS POINT HAS LEAD TO THE IDEA THAT THE QPF
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL BE LIMITED.  SECTIONS
FURTHER EAST...IN THE MOUNTAINS...MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN BETTER
SUPPLY AS THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW MORE ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE SYSTEM...MEANING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS.  THUS WILL ADJUST THE
WINTER STORM WATCHES SOME BECAUSE OF NOT ONLY PCPN TYPE BUT QPF
AMOUNTS.  WILL GO WW ADVISORY FROM SE OHIO ACROSS NRN WV TO BARBOUR
COUNTY AND THEN AGAIN FROM NICHOLAS TO RALEIGH COUNTIES.  WILL
UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR WEBSTER...RALEIGH AND POCAHONTAS
COUNTIES...WHERE HIGHEST QPF AND LESS CHANCE FOR MIXING OVER SHOULD
LEAD TO SNOW FALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HEAVY LIFT CONTINUES SUNDAY MORNING...TAPERING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON. AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS. COLDER AIR STARTS PUSHING BACK INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES CHANGING BACK OVER TO
SNOW BY EVENING. AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND COLDER AIR PUSHES IN ALOFT...UPSLOPE BECOMES AN ISSUE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE THEN PULLS OUT RAPIDLY ON MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS. TIMING OF MID WEEK SYSTEM IS A BIT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO MADE A FEW TIMING CHANGES.

ESS/RPY
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900 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2003

EVENING UPDATE DISCUSSION...
PESKY BROKEN CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS
FINALLY SCATTERING OUT.  HIGH CLOUDS THAT WERE PUSHING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED.  THIS IS LEAVING A LONGER
PAUSE IN THE RETURN OF CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  DEW POINTS ARE
HOVERING IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.  WITH FORECAST LOWS IN
THIS SAME RANGE...WILL NOT CHANGE TEMPERATURES.  SKY COVER ON THE
OTHER HAND...WILL MAKE MOSTLY CLEAR THE PHRASE OF THE EVENING...ALL
AREAS EXCEPT FOR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE SCATTERED CLOUDS
REMAIN.

KF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
420 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2003

KYZ101>103-OHZ0066-067-075-076-083>87-VAZ003-004-WVZ006>011-014>0
20-027>040-046-047-140500-
BOYD KY-BUCHANAN VA-CABELL WV-CALHOUN WV-CARTER KY-CLAY WV-DICKENSON
VA-GALLIA OH-GREENUP KY-JACKSON OH-ATHENS OH-MEIGS OH-LAWRENCE
OH-MORGAN OH-PERRY OH-WV-KANAWHA WV-MASON WV-MCDOWELL WV-PUTNAM
WV-ROANE WV-WYOMING WV-PLEASANTS WV-TYLER WV-VINTON OH-WASHINGTON
OH-BARBOUR WV-BRAXTON WV-DODDRIDGE WV-FAYETTE WV-GILMER WV-HARRISON
WV-LEWIS WV-NICHOLAS WV-RALEIGH WV-RITCHIE WV-TAYLOR WV-UPSHUR
WV-WIRT WV-WOOD WV-POCAHONTAS WV-RANDOLPH WV-WEBSTER WV-
400 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN OHIO...
NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND MOST OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL BRING A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY.  A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
RANDOLPH...POCAHONTAS...AND WEBSTER COUNTIES.  A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO...NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...PORTIONS OF WESTERN VIRGINIA...AND
MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.  THESE WARNINGS AND ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT
FROM 7 PM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH 4 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINTER STORM WARNING.........SEE WWUS41 KRLX - WSWRLX FOR DETAILS *
* WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY......SEE WWUS41 KRLX - WSWRLX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...WILL MIX WITH AND
CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.  1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN BE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER TO FLURRIES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

* WINTER STORM WARNING.........SEE WWUS41 KRLX - WSWRLX FOR DETAILS *
* WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY......SEE WWUS41 KRLX - WSWRLX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KYZ105-WVZ005-013-024>026-140500-
LAWRENCE KY-WAYNE WV-LINCOLN WV-MINGO WV-LOGAN WV-BOONE WV-
420 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO...NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND MOST OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW SATURDAY EVENING.  THIS SNOW WILL MIX WITH
AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK OVER TO ALL SNOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIGHT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.