Winter Weather in Illinois, December 13 to 14, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
705 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2003

.UPDATE...
AM BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED THAT GFS MAY HAVE HIT THE NAIL ON
THE HEAD. DRY SLOT CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
ARKANSAS. PRECIP HAS ALL BUT ENDED OVER ARKANSAS. ALSO...THE
PRECIPITATION HAS HAD A VERY HARD TIME OVERCOMING THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THAT BY THE
TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP...THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE
ALREADY DRYING OUT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN THRUST OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI IS JUST AHEAD OF THE MID TROP
CIRCULATION. AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BEST QPF WILL LIKELY
ACCUMULATE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THAT TRACK...AND TO OUR SOUTH
WITH CONVECTION FROM SW TN INTO MISSISSIPPI. AM GOING TO GO OVER THE
GRIDS...AND CONSIDER REDUCING OUR WINTRY PRECIP ACCUMULATION TOTALS.
WAS HESITANT TO DO THAT WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...SINCE IT WOULD
HAVE BEEN A MAJOR CHANGE. BUT AS WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR REGIONAL
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...IT IS BECOMING MORE APPARENT THAT WE
MAY MISS OUT ON MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. ZFP/GRID UPDATES
COMING OUT SHORTLY. WE WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY GOING FOR SE MO...AND
ADJUST THE ACCUMULATIONS DOWNWARD AND ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD AREA OF MAINLY SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION
FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF COAST REGION. UPPER LOW SEEN ON WVAPOR
SPINNING OVER NRN OK...SRN KS...WITH PRECIP WRAPPED AROUND THE
CENTER.

00 UTC GFS REALLY PLAYS DOWN THE SNOW ACCUM POTENTIAL FOR OUR AREA.
IT WAS TRENDING TOWARD WHAT IS PLAYING OUT TO OUR WEST. DRY SLOT
HAS PUSHED ACROSS WESTERN 1/2 OF ARKANSAS...AND WAS HEADING TOWARD
NRN ARKANSAS. ALSO...LEADING EDGE OF SNOW WAS TRYING TO OVERCOME DRY
AIR IN PLACE OVER OUR FA...SLOWING ONSET. 06Z MESOETA IS A LITTLE
MORE ROBUST WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SAME GENERAL TREND AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT WILL TREND DOWN
ACTUAL ACCUMULATIONS...SINCE THE DRY SLOT SEEMS TO BE MAKING A
B-LINE FOR OUR FA. NEVER THE LESS...ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME
MIXED PRECIP EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...AS
SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW TROP WARMING EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY.
WILL GO WITH A MIX OF -RA/IP/SN...WITH MORE LIQUID OVER THE
PENNYRILE REGION OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS...
WILL GO 1 TO 2 NORTH...WITH SOME 3 OR 4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER
SE MO... AND 1 INCH OR SO OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY...LESS TO TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE BORDER.

WE WERE DEBATING ON WHETHER OR NOT TO GO ADVISORY OVER SRN IL INTO
SW IN...FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES...SINCE THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ACCUM FOR
SOME AREAS. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT NOT
HIGH ENOUGH YET TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY. WILL HAVE AN ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF SE MO...WHERE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED ACCUM OF
CONSEQUENCE IS MORE LIKELY.

LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH AS MID TROP CONTINUES TO DRY. STILL LOOKING FOR CLOUDS TO
DECREASE ON SUNDAY AS WELL...WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA IN THE MORNING. THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE
LEFT AS IS AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY WEST OF A JACKSON TO DEXTER LINE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1124 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2003

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-141100-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY MO-PERRY IL-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-UNION IL-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE MO-WAYNE IL-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-
1124 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SNOW WILL BECOME STEADIER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND
NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE
FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES IN THOSE AREAS. REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY /SDFWSWPAH/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION. OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...UP TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW MAY
FALL NORTH AND WEST OF POPLAR BLUFF...BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND MOST OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY...OCCASIONAL SLEET AND SNOW COULD BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON GRASSY
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT.