Strong Wind in Tennessee, February 3 to 4, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
850 PM EST MON FEB 3 2003

THE FOLLOWING ARE ALL THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24
HOURS...WITH THE MOST RECENT ON TOP. THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.

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EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION
850 PM EST MON FEB 3 2003

85H TROF/SFC FNT ADVANCING STEADILY E ACROSS MS RIVER AND NOW
STRETCHED ACROSS W TN AND NW MS. LOW LVL JET SHIFTING E TWD MID TN
WHERE AREA OF SHRA CONTAINING LGT TO MDT RAIN IS OCCURRING. WILL
KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING AS UPSTREAM OBS SHOWING SOME HEALTHY SLY
FLO AND WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION BRINGING MOMENTUM TO THE
SFC...WILL KEEP CHC TSRA. WILL NEED TO ADJUST ZONES FOR TIMING OF
PRECIP AS STUDY OF RADAR MOSAIC THIS EVENING INDICATES THAT SHRA
TENDS TO DISSIPATE ON LEADING EDGE AWAITING THE MAIN LIFT TO ARRIVE
AFTER MIDNITE ESPECIALLY ERN MOST ZONES. TEMP FCST APPEARS ON TRACK
AS CAA BUILDS IN BEHIND FNT TWD DAYBREAK.

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AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION
325 PM EST MON FEB 3 2003

MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS
STATES. LOW PRESSURE OVER NE IL WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN
MO AND NORTH CENTRAL AR. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENING. SOLID
LOW CLOUD AREA IS STILL TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS MIDDLE TN
AND NORTHERN AL. RADAR RETURNS INDICATING LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO NW
AL AND MIDDLE TN BUT STILL SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE REACHING FORECAST
AREA. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SOME EXPOSED SITES.

NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST BUT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE LESS. HOWEVER 50 TO 60KT AT 850 MB AND HIGH
HELICITY VALUES COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 1 TO
1.25 INCHES WILL HELP FUEL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED TO BE IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU AND MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN LEE AND
WISE COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EVENING
AS FRONT APPROACHES WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUDS TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE ONLY A FEW DEGREES. EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO MIX WITH
SNOW BY AFTERNOON OVER THE SMOKYS AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WITH NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. ONLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING
DURING THE DAY. A NICE COOL DAY WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH AND SNOW AND RAIN SOUTH.

FCSTID =    9
CHA   45  48  24  44 / 100  20  10  10
TYS   44  47  23  42 / 100  30  10  10
TRI   43  45  21  38 / 100  50  10  10
OQT   43  46  22  41 / 100  30  10  10

.MRX...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES NCZ060>061.

TN...WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES TNZ018...TNZ041...TNZ043...
TNZ045...TNZ047...TNZ072...TNZ074...TNZ087...TNZ102.

WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES TNZ012>014...TNZ035.

VA...WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES VAZ001>002.

TD
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LATE MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION
955 AM EST MON FEB 3 2003

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASING RAPIDLY ACROSS FORECAST
AREA. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH COLD
FRONT STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SW MO AND ACROSS EASTERN
OK AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP OVER
MIDDLE TN AND SE KY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH ALREADY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA. WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NEW ETA
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY
21Z ACROSS EASTERN AR AND WEST TN INTO EASTERN KY AND THEN MOVING
EAST APPROACHING THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COUNTIES BY MID EVENING.
PRIME TIME FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LIKE BETWEEN THAT
TIME AND SUNRISE. WIDE RANGE IN LOWS THIS MORNING FROM UPPER 20S TO
THE UPPER 40S. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS TO MID 50S AT TYS. WITH LOW CLOUDINESS NOW MOVING
INTO FORECAST AREA EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO HOLD IN THE 60S. NO
UPDATE PLANNED.

TD
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EARLY MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION
415 AM EST MON FEB 3 2003

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING SURFACE LOW IN NORTHERN MO WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING INTO EASTERN KS.  MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
MOVING FRONT INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT.  WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR TODAY AND 100 POPS FOR TONIGHT.  LOOKS LIKE PRIME TIME
FOR PRECIP WILL START THIS EVENING.   GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE SUPPORT
FOR THE FRONT.  INSTABILITY STILL LIMITED AND FRONT WILL ARRIVE
AFTER SUNSET...BUT WITH THE 50KT 850MB JET AND GOOD DAYTIME HEATING
TODAY...CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.  WILL PROBABLY
NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.  COOL TEMPERATURES
RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NOT RISING MUCH.  WILL KEEP A
CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY.  SHOULD BE RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE MOUNTAINS BASED ON THICKNESSES AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.  STILL SOME MOISTURE LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE NORTH...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.  DRY WEATHER
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

CHA   68  45  49  26 /  10 100  10  10
TYS   66  44  47  25 /   0 100  30  10
TRI   64  43  46  23 /   0 100  50  10
OQT   66  44  47  25 /   0 100  30  10

GH
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NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-041100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
500 AM EST MON FEB 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE (MONDAY)...

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.  SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL.

STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF EAST TENNESSEE...EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.  WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES TONIGHT IN THESE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX.