Hail in North Carolina, April 30, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 PM EDT WED APR 30 2003

SH AND TS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC. EXPECT THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FURTHER EAST AND WILL REMAIN INTO THE EVENING. SEVERE
CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD AS PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE...IN
FACT...DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED HIGHER THAN EXPECTED RESULTING IN
CAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG AT PEAK HEATING. WILL TREND POPS FROM LIKELY
OVER THE NRN MTNS DOWN TO 30S EAST OF CLT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL
DECREASE POPS TO SCHC AND WILL ADD PATCHY FOG. FOG COULD BECOME
DENSE IN SPOTS AS MIN WILL SURPASS CROSSOVER TEMPS.

FORECAST CHANGES A BIT FOR THU AS MODELS HAVE ADOPTED THE COASTAL
LOW OFF THE SE. WILL FOLLOW MAINLY THE ETA ON THIS FEATURE AS AGAIN
THE GFS IS OVER DEVELOPING THE LOW. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW
WILL ADVECT IN MORE STABLE AIR OVER THE NE CWA...BUT AREAS IN THE
WEST WILL FEEL LITTLE DIFFERENCE. WILL GO SCHC OVER THE NRN PIEDMONT
OF NC AND MAINTAIN CHC OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM AS THE MAIN LOW...THE COLD FRONT
THAT WAS PROGGED FOR FRI HAS SLOWED. IN FACT...FRONT MAY STALL OVER
THE CWA FOR SAT...WITH ETA HOLDING ONTO SOME CAPE. WILL DELAY ONSET
OF PRECIP TO FRI AFTERNOON AND HOLD ONTO MENTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. DUE
TO THIS CHANGE WILL LEAN AGAINST ADDING POPS TO THE SAT PERIOD...BUT
WILL INCREASE POPS TO SCHC TO TREND INTO THE DIRECTION OF MENTION.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE DOWN AS IT MOVES PAST TO THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS FOLLOWED CLOSELY HERE.
ONCE THE HIGH IS OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A WEAK WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH...MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO RETURN. WILL INTRODUCE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOISTENING RETURN FLOW...HAVE RAISED LOW TEMP
MONDAY NIGHT BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS SC/NE GA. BY TUESDAY...WE
SHOULD BE SET UP FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH
THE HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A SURFACE FRONT TO THE WEST.
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE HERE IS TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT
DEPICTED BY HPC AT 12Z WEDNESDAY.

FCSTID =   16
GSP   58  79  59  82 /  50  30  30  40
AND   59  80  59  83 /  50  30  30  40
CLT   57  81  59  82 /  40  30  30  40
HKY   58  78  58  79 /  50  20  20  40
AVL   56  75  55  78 /  50  30  30  40

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

NED/MOORE

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-301200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
603 AM EDT WED APR 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. FOR
FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK...SPSGSP...ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

EXPECT A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-302100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1010 AM EDT WED APR 30 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 1 PM AND 3 PM. SEVERAL SMALL SCALE SURFACE BOUNDARIES ALONG
WITH SOUTHEAST LOWER LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING DOWN
INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE...THAT IS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS THAT
KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES. THE GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF THE CAROLINAS.

WITH A RATHER WEAK VERTICAL WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND
UNSEASONABLY LOW FREEZING LEVELS...LARGE HAIL IS THE BIGGEST THREAT
TO ACCOMPANY STORMS. IN ADDITION...THIS WEAK WIND FLOW WILL CAUSE
STORMS TO BE SLOW-MOVERS...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN LOCALIZED VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

MOORE

NCZ036-037-057-301945-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
249 PM EDT WED APR 30 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THROUGH 4 PM...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS ROWAN COUNTY
AND DAVIE COUNTY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE MARBLE SIZED
HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN. SHOULD THESE
STORMS DEVELOP ANY FURTHER...A WARNING MIGHT BE NEEDED.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

MOORE