Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, April 30, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
735 PM CDT WED APR 30 2003

WE HAVE ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO NARROW DOWN THE AREA WHERE THE
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

--------------------------------------------------------------------
COX

...MESO UPDATE...
LATEST LAPS SOUNDING SHOWD CAP WAS STILL HOLDING, BUT JUST BARELY.
VIS SATL SHOWD LN OF CU JUST S OF ICT AREA ACRS SUMNER/HARPER
COUNTIES. SUSPECT JUST A LTL MORE FORCING IS NEEDED TO ERODE CAP AND
RELEASE VRY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACRS SCNTRL KS. THIS COULD COME FROM
INCREASED CONVERGENCE WITH SLGT BACKING OF NEAR SFC WNDS, AS USUALLY
OCCURS TWD 00Z. MID LVL COLD ADVCTN WITH APPROACHING TROF TO OUR W
COULD ALSO QUICKLY ERODE CAP AND ACT IN CONCERT, ALLOWING FOR RAPID
STM DVLPMT ACRS SCNTRL KS, PROBLY JUST S AND E OF ICT, BTWN 00Z-02Z.

POTNL FOR NEW TRIPLE POINT TO FORM ALG OKLA/KS BORDER AT DRYLN/CDFNT
INTERSECTION TO THE SW OF ICT THIS EVENING, SO SVR POTNL WITH
TORNADOES STILL A POSSIBILITY IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR.

WL CONT TO MONITOR SATL/RADAR AND MESO DATA AVBL.

KED

-----------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
320 PM CDT WED APR 30 2003
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF WHEN
THE CONVECTION WILL BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND PLACEMENT. NEXT
CONCERN IS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS IF THAT
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP OR NOT.

TONIGHT:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A NICE SPEED MAX MOVING THROUGH THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH ACARS AND PROFILER DATA SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 70 TO 80KTS. THIS SPEED MAX IS PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN OK WHICH WILL AID IN PUSHING THE DRY LINE EASTWARD
ALONG WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD START TO SEE
STORMS FIRING ALONG THE DRY LINE AFTER 00Z. THE INITIAL CONVECTION
SHOULD START ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKER. HOWEVER, TOPS LATEST SOUNDING SHOWS
A VERY STRONG CAP OVER THAT REGION. FURTHER SOUTH IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LATER STILL AS THE DRY
LINE PUSHES INTO THAT REGION LATER ON. WILL IT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK
THE CAP OVER US. IT IS HARD TO SAY. IF IT DOES BREAK, THEN MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MULTICELLULAR WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EVENING AND THEN SLIDE INTO MISSOURI MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TOMORROW:
MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH
LITTLE IF ANY DRY AIR PUSHING IN. AS A RESULT, LARGE CAPES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE IN PLACE TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MODELS DO
SHOW MUCH WEAKER SHEAR IN PLACE WHICH WILL KEEP THE STORMS
MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE. THERE WILL BE A BOUNDARY IN PLACE IN THAT
REGION, BUT WILL IT BE THE INITIATOR OR WILL IT BE AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. THE NEXT PROBLEM FOR AIRLINE
FOLKS WILL THE EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW. WE SHOULD SEE THE
LOW CLOUDS ON THE ORDER AOB 1KFT IN CENTRAL KANSAS PUSH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS BY DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH COOLEST SPOTS BEHIND THE FRONT IN RUSSELL AND SALINA.

TOMORROW NIGHT-FRIDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ALSO BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:
ALL THREE MODELS SHOW THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIGGING OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE GFS BRINGS THIS WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS THE QUICKEST MODEL WHICH LOOKS
PRETTY REASONABLE AT THE MOMENT AFTER LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
AND CANADIAN SOLUTION. THE UKMET/ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER, BUT
SINCE THE GFS IS THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL SINCE THE LAST RUN WE ARE
GOING ALONG WITH ITS SOLUTION IN BRINGING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
TO THE CWFA SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY THE MODELS REALLY DIG AND CLOSE OFF
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN NEBRASKA.  AS THIS SYSTEM DIGS, IT WILL
ALLOW FOR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSH BACK INTO THE REGION AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. AS A
RESULT, WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY:
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS. AS
A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

FCSTID =   18/COX
ICT   57  75  51  71 /  40  10   0   5
HUT   53  73  49  69 /  30  10   0   5
EWK   54  73  50  69 /  30  10   0   5
EQA   58  75  52  70 /  50  10   0   5
WLD   59  77  52  72 /  40  20   5   5
RSL   50  71  47  67 /  30   5   0   5
GBD   50  71  47  67 /  30   5   0   5
SLN   53  72  47  67 /  30   5   0   5
MPR   54  73  50  69 /  30  10   0   5
CFV   63  82  56  73 /  40  30   5   5
CNU   62  79  54  72 /  50  30   5   5
K88   60  76  52  70 /  60  20   5   5

.ICT...NONE
COX

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-011200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED WORDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
348 PM CDT WED APR 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. STORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE AREA
GREATEST AT RISK WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A HOISINGTON TO
ELLSWORTH, TO SALINA LINE. MEANWHILE A DRY LINE WILL SURGE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS, AND MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE ALONG THIS DRY LINE IN
THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HUTCHINSON TO
KINGMAN, TO ANTHONY LINE. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, HOWEVER ISOLATED
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE ONCE AGAIN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A EUREKA TO WINFIELD LINE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS SOON AS SATURDAY. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

CJ/COX

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-010110-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
710 PM CDT WED APR 30 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA IS ACTIVATING OUR
SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK.

A SKYWARN OPERATOR IS MONITORING AREA NETWORKS.

THE PRIMARY SKYWARN FREQUENCY IS 444.0 MHZ.

EMERGENCY TRAFFIC WILL BE ON 146.82 MHZ.

NNNN