Flash Flood and Hail in Georgia, April 30, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
505 AM EDT WED APR 30 2003

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN STATES MOVES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
WEAK SSE SURFACE FLOW HELPING TO PROVIDE LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS OVER
AREA WITH A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ONLY WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT IN A RELATIVELY
ZONAL FLOW BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THINGS. BEST
MOISTURE OVER N GA TODAY WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAVERING
AROUND N CAROLINA TO KY TODAY BEFORE GOING N. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. ELONGATES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. FELT A NEED
TO UP POPS TO 50% ACROSS FAR N GA TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO A
POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
AREA. REST OF FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SIMILAR TO CURRENT FORECAST.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KATL 83 63 81 61 / 40 40 30 10
KAHN 84 61 82 60 / 40 40 30 10
KGVL 83 62 80 60 / 50 50 30 10
KRMG 84 60 82 60 / 50 30 30 20
KCSG 87 64 85 63 / 10 10 20 10
KMCN 86 60 85 61 / 10 10 20 10

.ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.

...AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ALMOST A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH CU FIELD DEVELOPING LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL ADD PROB30 AFT 21Z FOR THUNDER IN ATL AND
AHN BUT WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF CSG AND MCN FOR NOW. PRECIP ACROSS
ATL TO AHN WILL END BY 05Z. THE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WILL
DISSIPATE BY 13Z OR 14Z...BUT EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP AFT 08Z
TONIGHT WITH MCN POSSIBLY GOING BACK DOWN TO 1/2SM.

BDL

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-302115-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1118 AM EDT WED APR 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF GEORGIA TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST. THIS WILL KEEP A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR OVER GEORGIA
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN...AND LIGHTNING.

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN DAYTIME HEATING WILL HAVE ITS FULLEST
IMPACT. CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 1500 ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS 2 TO MINUS 4...AND THIS
INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
REACH SEVERE LEVELS. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM ATLANTA TO ATHENS. DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS... LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

.FOR SPOTTERS...
SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.

GAZ013-301845-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
215 PM EDT WED APR 30 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SMALL HAIL IN PICKENS COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM EDT...

AT 213 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TALKING ROCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ENDING OVER THE AREA BY 245 PM EDT.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.