Hail and Lightning Strike in North Carolina, April 30, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT WED APR 30 2003

TONIGHT...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A BOUNDARY LOCATED EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE...AND GOOD CONVERGENCE OVER THE
PIEDMONT. BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING WILL BE IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE GOES SOUNDER LI IS SHOWING THE MOST UNSTABLE
AIR (-4) AND THE FLOW IS UPSLOPE. EXPECT THAT ENOUGH ENERGY WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
VERTICAL WIND FIELD IS UNIDIRECTIONAL AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SO STORMS
WILL BE OF THE PULSE VARIETY. WEAK 850-700MB ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NEAR
THE COAST WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE EASTERN SECTIONS TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION AT BEST.

THURSDAY...THE 850-700 RIDGE OFF THE COAST WILL EXTEND OVER THE
AREA...AND A VORT MAX WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE VORT TO OUR SOUTH WILL ROB OUR SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE
AND STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BY MIDLEVEL WARMING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS ALSO CONFLUENT THURSDAY...AND WE WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE
OF A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK. THUS WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THURSDAY.
GFS BRINGS THE OFFSHORE LOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SHOWS LIKELY POPS EAST...BUT IT APPEARS TO HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS SO PREFER THE ETA WHICH KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER EAST. WILL
ALSO LEAN TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S...WHICH ARE
SUPPORTED BY ETA LOW LEVEL THICKNESS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. POPS WILL BE LOW HOWEVER AS THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED BY THE CYCLONE OFFSHORE
AND A WESTERLY 850MB FLOW. GFS TAKES THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND 12Z SATURDAY AND THE 850 TROUGH THROUGH AROUND 18Z...SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN FOR SATURDAY AND LIMIT TO THE MORNING. CURRENT
FORECAST DOES NOT MENTION THUNDER SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE LEFT
AS IS DUE TO LACK OF CONVINCING EVIDENCE TO CHANGE IT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
IN PLACING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY TUESDAY...WHICH THE MRF BRINGS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AN INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS TO
MID/UPPER 70S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ADDED
FOR TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.RAH...NONE.

DGS

NCZ007>011-022>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-011030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
530 AM EDT WED APR 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

OUTSIDE OF THE DANGERS POSED BY LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED STRONG WIND
GUSTS FROM SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.