Winter Storm in Nebraska, February 23, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
227 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2003

...FORECAST CHALLENGE HIGHLIGHTED BY EXITING STORM SYSTEM
TODAY...THEN LIGHT SNOW EVENT TONIGHT...THEN TEMPS...

H5 PATTERN TONIGHT DOMINATED BY LONG WAVE TROFING OVER MAJORITY OF
THE CONUS. ARCTIC LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS NRN MANITOBA WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES PRESENT IN THE MEAN FLOW. MOST NOTEWORTHY
TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS IS THE SHORTWAVE TROF ACROSS NWRN
COLORADO. WV IMAGERY AS OF 06Z INDICATING EWD MOVEMENT WITH WEAK
CIRCULATION OVER NRN COLORADO. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HRS...SECONDARY CIRCULATION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN
COLORADO. AT THE SFC...ARCTIC FRONT HAS BACKED CLEAR TO THE ERN EDGE
OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OUT OF SRN
CANADA INTO ND...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP WITH NO RECOVERY
ON SUNDAY. TWO MAIN SFC LOWS TO NOTE...FIRST OVER DENVER AND A
SECOND HAS BEGUN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SERN COLORADO DURING THE PAST
THREE HOURS. SHOULD SEE SNOWS TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR
NRN ZONES TOWARD SUNRISE AS SECONDARY LOW STRENGTHENS AND NRN LOW
(KDEN VICINITY) CONTINUES TO FILL. SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE VARIED
WIDELY...WITH 1 TO 2  AT VTN...5+ INCHES NEAR OSHKOSH TO 3 AT LBF
AS OF 830Z. HEAVIER BANDS HAVE PRODUCED NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AT
TIMES WITH VISBIS < 1/4 MILE.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...H7 TROF DIVES INTO OK BY MIDDAY AS PCPN SHIFTS
SEWD...SHOULD SEE A GENERAL TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES BY NOON TIME.
AT THIS JUNCTURE...WILL KEEP ONGOING ADVZYS AND WARNINGS ONGOING TIL
18Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SHERIDAN COUNTY. ONGOING FCST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. WEAK SUBSIDENCE POST TROF IN THE MID
LEVELS...BUT H5 PATTERN CONTINUES WITH FA UNDER INFLUENCE OF TROFING
AND CLOUDINESS. ABOUT THE ONLY BENEFIT FROM THIS WILL BE RAISED
CEILINGS ON THE AVN SIDE. WITH CONTINUED LL CAA TODAY AND
CLOUDINESS...TEMPS SHOULD PEAK THIS MORNING AND REMAIN STEADY TODAY
WITH VIRTUALLY NO REBOUND. BY THIS EVENING...A SECOND H7 WAVE TRAVERSES
ACROSS WYOMING LATE THIS AFTN BEFORE FLATTENING ACROSS THE FA THIS
EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ACROSS THE NERN ZONES TONIGHT AND
INCREASE THEM ACROSS THE SW. DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING WITH GOOD
AMOUNT OF UPSLOPE TONIGHT (H85 WINDS DUE EAST) WEST OF A LINE FROM
VTN TO BBW. H85 WINDS SHOW VIRTUALLY NO ERLY COMPONENT TO THEM EAST
OF THIS LINE...SO THIS IS WHERE THE PCPN/NO PCPN LINE WILL BE DRAWN.
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT WITH AMOUNTS AN INCH
OR SO.

.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TEMPORALLY ON MONDAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES INTO ERN KS. H85 TEMPS MODIFY A LITTLE...FROM
-25C TO -20C...SO WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE BALMY TEENS. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMP REGIME WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS AS
SRN ZONES WILL HANG ONTO CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER. LL CLOUDINESS WILL
BEGIN TO TREK NWD OVERNIGHT AS SERLY FLOW SETS UP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE EXITING SFC HIGH. ONGOING FCST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND LATEST RUNS SUPPORT THIS WITH APPROACH OF NEXT WEAK
WAVE FROM THE SW.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH FOCUS OF
JET ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NO SURPRISE...BULK OF PCPN HAS SHIFTED
SWD. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL TREND POPS DOWNWARD FOR BOTH DAYS.
TEMPS IN GOOD SHAPE.

.FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF STATES AS THE SRN BRANCH OF THE JET REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF THE FA. ARCTIC VORTEX HANGS AROUND OVER THE HUDSON
THROUGH DAY SEVEN. WITH INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPR LOW AND THE BULK OF
THE CONUS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LW TROFING...TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

.LBF...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS MORNING NEZ022-056>058-069-070
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING NEZ035-036-059-071-094-023-024

CLB

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-231715-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
532 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2003

...SNOWFALL RATES TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THE MAIN FORCING DRIVING THE SNOW EVENT FROM OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO END. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER TO
FLURRIES FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE ENTERS FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AREAS TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...WILL SEE THE
CHANCE FOR MORE ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT...UP TO 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.

BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH TODAY WILL
CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TO ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO...ANYONE TO VENTURE OUT
SHOULD BUNDLE UP IN LAYERS OF CLOTHING FOR PROPER PROTECTION WHILE
OUTSIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER A SLOW RECOVERY WILL BE SEEN DURING THE PERIOD AS THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THERE WILL BE THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW DAILY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES NOT
EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK UNTIL THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

KECK