Winter Storm in Kansas, February 23, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
350 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2003

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE HOW MUCH SNOW OUR COUNTY
WARNING ARE WILL SEE TODAY.  SECONDARY CONCERNS WILL BE THE
INVASIONS OF A BRUTALLY COLD AIRMASS, ALONG WITH CHANCES OF MORE
WINTERY PRECIPITATION BASICALLY EVERY DAYS THIS WEEK

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS WILL ENDUCE STRONG MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.  IN ADDITION, VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTIVE SNOWS.  HOWEVER, THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WE ARE IN,
WILL NOT ALLOW THE STORM TO CLOSE OFF.  THEREFORE, THE DURATION OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED.  THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
THE STRONGEST LIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THEIR LAST SEVERAL RUNS.  THIS IS
PROBABLY BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE UNDER-ESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE
ARCTIC AIR COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTH.  LOOKING AT 2-4 INCHES OVER
RSL/GBD, 2-4 INCHES OVER SALINA AREA, 3-7 INCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND THE NORTHERN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
4-8 INCHES LOOKS GOOD FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WILL PRODUCE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FALLING INTO
THE TEENS, SO WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO AROUND 0 BY LATE AFTERNOON.

BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TONIGHT.  THIS SHOULD SEND READINGS DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS, TO AROUND 10 DEGREES.  THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW
FOR A BIT OF PARTIAL CLEARING LATE.  NOT SURE IF THIS WILL HAPPEN,
BUT IF IT DOES TEMPERATURES WILL HEAD TOWARDS ZERO.

OTHERWISE, MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO KANSAS ON
MONDAY.  UNDER A SOLID OVERCAST AND BITTERLY COLD NORTH WINDS, HIGHS
WILL ONLY RANGE FROM NEAR 9 IN RUSSELL, TO MAYBE 15 NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.  IN ADDITION, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE MORE MID
LEVEL LIFT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.  WILL GO WITH 30
PERCENT POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MY COUNTY WARNING AREA.

STRONGEST LIFT WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF MY AREA MONDAY NIGHT, SO
WILL JUST LEAVE THE MENTION FOR A CHANCE OF FLURRIES.  LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, TO NEAR 10 DEGREES.

BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA ON
TUESDAY.  WILL GO WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SNOW, ALTHOUGH LIFT
IS NOT DEPICTED TO BE VERY STRONG.  HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM THE
TEENS, TO NEAR 20 AROUND THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.  AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CONTINUED TO DIG OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S., STRONGER
ISENTROPIC MAY DEVELOP.  NOT REALLY SURE THOUGH ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THIS, SO WILL JUST GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION, HIGHER
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.  MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM
FURTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS, BECAUSE THEY ARE FINALLY STARTING
TO REALIZE THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR.

ON WEDNESDAY, THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL COME OUT AND TRACK SOMEWHERE
ACROSS OKLAHOMA.  IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE MAINLY A SNOW EVENT, EVEN
FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH WARM MID LEVEL AIR STRUGGLING TO MAKE
IT FURTHER NORTH.  ONE THING IS ALMOST A GUARANTEE, IT WILL REMAIN
EXTREMELY COLD AT THE SURFACE.  THINGS MAY TRY TO CALM DOWN A BIT BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, BUT WE WILL SEE.

FCSTID =8/FRANK
ICT   24   7  13   8 / 100   5  30  10
HUT   23   6  12   6 / 100   5  30  10
EWK   23   7  13   7 / 100   5  30  10
EQA   24   7  13   8 / 100  10  30  10
WLD   27   9  15   9 / 100   5  30  10
RSL   18   5   9   5 / 100   5  30  10
GBD   21   6  10   5 / 100   5  30  10
SLN   22   5  10   6 / 100   5  30  10
MPR   23   7  13   7 / 100   5  30  10
CFV   27   9  15   9 / 100  20  30  10
CNU   26   8  14   8 / 100  20  30  10
K88   25   8  14   8 / 100  20  30  10

.ICT...
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TODAY FOR ZONES KSZ067>072...
KSZ082>083...KSZ091>096...KSZ098>100.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES KSZ032>033...KSZ047>053.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-241200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
436 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING, AND
COME DOWN HEAVY AT TIMES.  A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR
CENTRAL KANSAS, WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  SEE LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGES
(TOPWSWICT) FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY, AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS KANSAS.  AT THIS TIME, AMOUNTS LOOK
TO BE PRETTY LIGHT.

THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY, AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE, SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT WE REALLY
APPRECIATE ANY SNOWFALL REPORTS YOU CAN SUPPLY US WITH.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

FRANK