High Wind in Montana, March 15, 2003

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
211 PM MST SAT MAR 15 2003

.SHORT TERM...MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS PASSAGE OF RAGGED
PACIFIC COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. ASSOCIATED BAND OF
PRECIP WITH CONVECTIVE CHARACTERISTICS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES. LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION - MAINLY SNOW - IS
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH DURATION WILL BE BRIEF. DYNAMICS NOT AS GOOD
FARTHER NORTH...BUT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD MAKE IT OVER
THE DIVIDE DURING THE DAY. BEST ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF CWA AND EVENTUALLY FUEL A COLORADO LOW. THIS RESULTS IN A
POSSIBLE SPRING STORM FOR THE EASTERN PART OF MONTANA AND WYOMING FOR
MONDAY AND BEYOND. BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTIES MAY GET INVOLVED IN
THIS...BUT BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE WILL LIMIT FORECAST TO CHANCE
POPS. HOWEVER THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE WATCHED AS
MODEL DEPICTION OF MOIST BAROCLINIC ZONE ON MONDAY IS PERILOUSLY
CLOSE TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA. AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS...IT
WILL INDUCE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL BRING IN
COOLER TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. POMEROY

.EXTENDED...WED WILL START OFF WITH A QUASISTATIONARY STORM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. QUESTION IS HOW FAR W ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE FELT.
TYPICALLY WETTER GFS EXTENDS PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE ERN ZONES OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHILE ETA KEEPS PRECIPITATION FARTHER E. WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION AND GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS OVER THE ERN ZONES. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRIDS WHICH LINE UP WELL
WITH THOSE OF GGW AND BIL. THU PLAINS STORM WILL START TO HEAD NE
AND EXPECT AN UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FOR DRY WEATHER.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS W WHERE A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
PAC NW. UKMET/ECMWF SHOW MORE SPLITTING WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THE
GFS WHICH EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS WLY FLOW ALOFT OVER MT WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES. SUSPECT THE UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
TRUTH. EVEN IF THE GFS IS CLOSER TO WHAT ACTUALLY OCCURS WOULD NOT
EXPECT MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WRN
MOUNTAINS. SEE NO BIG AIRMASS CHANGES DURING THE PERIOD WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BLANK

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF EE 034/053 029/046 028 19033
    EBBBB 044/028 045/024 050/026 049/026 048 22222111111
CTB EE 030/049 027/047 024 19022
    EBBBB 042/022 044/022 048/026 046/026 045 00011111111
HLN EE 033/052 028/050 026 19233
    EBBBB 044/026 045/024 048/026 050/028 048 22221111111
BZN WC 031/050 025/044 022 19364
    EEBBB 042/024 046/019 044/022 046/023 045 43333111111
WEY JC 022/037 014/033 016 19787
    EEBBB 032/015 035/008 033/008 035/010 035 64444111111
DLN CE 034/051 027/047 022 19553
    EBBBB 042/021 044/018 042/020 046/023 044 12211111111
HVR EE 031/054 027/048 025 19033
    EBBBB 045/027 048/024 049/026 051/026 049 22222111111
LWT EC 035/054 028/052 027 19034
    EEBBB 041/025 040/020 044/023 046/024 044 44433111111

.TFX...NONE.

MTZ008>015-044>055-171100-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
945 AM MST SAT MAR 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A COOLING TREND AND SNOWMELT WILL BECOME
LESS RAPID. WATER LEVELS ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE AS NUMEROUS FEEDER STREAMS CONTRIBUTE THEIR RUNOFF. AT THIS
TIME...WATER LEVELS ON THE MAJOR RIVERS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.