Flash Flood and Hail in Texas, March 15, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
130 PM CST SAT MAR 15 2003

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TONIGHT.  A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THE FIRST OF
WHICH WAS EXTENDED NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NM THIS MORNING AT
ABOUT 16Z ACCORDING TO WV IMAGERY.  AS THIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
PROVIDING SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT...THE DRYLINE WILL TIGHTEN UP THIS
AFTERNOON PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.  SHARPENING
OF DRYLINE NOW JUST STARTING TO TAKE PLACE TO THE WEST WITH DRIER
DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
CONSIDERING THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT (HIGHER DEWPOINTS) IN THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
CONVECTION ALREADY GOING OUT THERE...WILL ADD IN ISOLATED POPS THOSE
AREAS FOR TONIGHT.  THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.  THE 12Z SOUNDING AT KMAF DID NOT REVEAL A
STELLAR SHEAR PROFILE WITH FAIRLY WEAK WINDS THROUGH 400MB. DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE DRYLINE...HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE
SOME PULSE SEVERE WEATHER SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS...JUST FURTHER TO
THE EAST.  THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL.

AFTER TONIGHT...DRYLINE MOVES TO THE EAST AND DOESNT LOOK TO MAKE A
RETURN FOR A WHILE.  DRIER AIR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY...AS A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA.  THIS LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT IN A COUPLE OF WAYS ON OUR
AREA.  MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE WINDY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  COOLER AIR WILL
ALSO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD ONLY
BE BROUGHT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.  AS THIS MID/UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA...COLDER AIR ALOFT ON TUESDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING AROUND THE LOW FOR SOME
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL ONLY INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THESE SHOWERS AT THIS TIME.  WINDY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO EXTEND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM PUTTING WINDY
INTO THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY...IF THAT FAR OUT...JUST YET.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONAL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE BELOW IS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY.
OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE WEST TEXAS/SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO ZONE FORECAST.

MAF BB 054/084 051/076 046 200
CNM BB 052/080 049/072 041 000
MRF BB 045/076 040/069 038 200
FST UB 058/085 052/079 047 200

.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

SN

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-161100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
200 PM CST SAT MAR 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER.  LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.  LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN
YOUR AREA.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED BY LATE AFTERNOON
EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER.

PLEASE REFER TO THE DAY1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK /ACUS01 KWNS/ ISSUED
BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND
CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT http://www.srh.noaa.gov/maf.