Heavy Rain in California, March 15, 2003

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
330 AM PST SAT MAR 15 2003

THE WARM FRONT HAS MOSTLY MOVED EAST OF THE HANFORD WARNING/
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THE NEXT RAIN BAND HAS MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.

MULTIPLE FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY. THE 00Z GFS QPF BROUGHT AROUND AN
INCH OF RAIN TO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE 00Z
ETA HAD SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER QPF/S...NEARLY DOUBLE FOR FRESNO...BUT
THE 06Z MESO-ETA RUN IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS. QPF/S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS ARE AROUND TWO INCHES...SO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD GET
BETWEEN 1.5-2 FEET TOTAL NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THEREFORE...WILL
LEAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...
NORTH OF KERN COUNTY...IN PLACE. FURTHER SOUTH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE MANTER AND
MCNALLEY BURN AREAS...AND ROCK/MUD/DEBRIS SLIDES IN AND BELOW THE
PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS. ACCORDINGLY...WILL
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE KERN AND TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS FOR TODAY.

IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE 06Z MESO-ETA CONTINUES THE TREND OF
PAST MODEL RUNS IN BRINGING MAXIMUM INSTABILITY TO THE VALLEY
BETWEEN 21-24Z. CAPES INCREASE TO OVER 600 J/KG...AND LIFTED INDICES
FALL TO -4 TO -5. AT 700 MB...OMEGAS INCREASE TO 20+ MICROBARS/
SECOND...AND 500-MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -22 C. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IN THE SLIGHT RISK
CATEGORY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SO HAVE ISSUED A CONVECTIVE
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

NEXT FORECAST CONCERN IS THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS OVER THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONG 300-200-MB
JET STREAM AT 120-130 KTS NOSES INTO SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY TONIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING...THE MESO-ETA FORECASTS STRONG 700-MB SUBSIDENCE OF
-11 MICROBARS/SECOND OVER THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY AT 15Z WITH TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS EASTERN KERN COUNTY FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...GUSTS OVER
80 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MAINLY
THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES.

THE RAIN/SNOW WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...TAPERING OFF MONDAY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ENDING COMPLETELY OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE
KERN COUNTY DESERTS.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD /TUE THRU FRI/...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ON THE
SAME PAGE WITH RIDGE POSITION ALONG THE WEST COAST TUE INTO WED. 00Z
GFS...AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN GLOBAL RUN...ARE MUCH SLOWER WITH THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BOTH MODELS BRING
THIS SYSTEM INTO NORTHERN CA VERY LATE WED...BUT STILL TREAT IT AS
AN INSIDE SLIDER THURSDAY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A RATHER HARMLESS COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS CENTRAL CA WED NIGHT OR THU AM WITH BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP CONFINED TO NORTHERNMOST CWA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE GFS BUILDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO CENTRAL CA BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. FRIDAY MAY BE THE ONLY DAY NEXT WEEK THAT MAX TEMPS FINALLY
BOUNCE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.HNX...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY AND THIS EVENING FOR THE
       SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE.
    ...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
       TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
    ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR THE KERN AND TULARE COUNTY
       MOUNTAINS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS.

SANGER/DURFEE

CAZ089>099-151345-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
530 AM PST FRI MAR 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR THE
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON AND TULARE MOUNTAINS,
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AND HEAVY SNOW,  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES ARE LIKELY ABOVE 6500 FEET WITH 2 FEET OR MORE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SIERRA SUMMIT.(WWUS46 KHNX). A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
FOR THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
WINDY ON SUNDAY IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT WITH WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

MORSE

CAZ089>092-151800-

CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
400 AM PST FRI MAR 14 2003

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...

A STRONG COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION...
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THIS MORNING. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
LEVELS AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER AND PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO.

RESIDENTS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY SHOULD KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON
THE SKY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND BE PREPARED TO
SEEK SAFE SHELTER IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS YOUR AREA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE...
FOR FUTURE STATEMENTS AND OR SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LATER TODAY.

DURFEE