Heavy Snow in Minnesota, April 4 to 5, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
210 AM CST FRI APR 4 2003

FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON LINGERING SNOWFALL FOR PARTS
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ALONG WITH PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE FOR THIS MORNING ACROSS NWRN WI AND PORTIONS OF NERN MN.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...WITH ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER
THE WEST COAST AND ANOTHER OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE UNITED
STATES. ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...SNOW HAS DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES
FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AREAS OF WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AS INDICATED BY KDLH RADAR.

EXPECT THE LES TO CONTINUE FOR TODAY AND LINGER INTO TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AS EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD.
850MB TEMPS PROGGED BY THE ETA SHOW THAT DELTA TS SHOULD BE LARGE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH BELIEVE SNOW
WILL BE LIGHT AND WE SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS FOR
EACH OF THE FIRST 3 PERIODS. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS MIXED IN
WITH THE SNOW CURRENTLY. BUT AS MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE WEST
MOVE OVER OUR AREA...SEEDING FROM THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CHANGE ALL
PRECIP TO LIGHT SNOW. DRIER AIR IS ALSO FILTERING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD HELP TO DISSIPATE FREEZING DRIZZLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT WILL EFFECT OUR 5 ERN WI ZONES STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE AFORE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFT ENE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDWEST. HOWEVER BOTH THE ETA AND AVN
DEVELOP A BAND OF QPF OVER MUCH OF WISCONSIN STARTING TODAY AND
LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT. SO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THESE COUNTIES TO
LIKELY AND ADD MENTION OF ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO 3
INCHES. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ETA
SEEMS TOO WARM ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING NEW SNOW COVER AND THE COLD
AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. SO WILL FOLLOW THE AVN MOS
NUMBERS MORE CLOSELY.

WINTER MAY BEGIN TO RELAX ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST
AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA...AND WAA WILL INITIATE OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES RETURNING TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

COORD WITH GRB...THANX.

.DLH...NONE.

BERDES

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-051330-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
700 AM CST FRI APR 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE TWIN PORTS
AREA TODAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...
WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH AROUND AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL ALSO
ACCUMULATE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN BY LATE TONIGHT DUE
TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. FOR FURTHER
DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE
DULUTH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. THERE IS A GALE WARNING IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ON LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SEVERE WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DLH

BERDES