High Wind in Kentucky, November 24, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1005 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2003

STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUING ITS MARCH...WITH MAINLY POST FRONTAL
PRECIP OCCURRING. LTG STRIKE COUNT GOING DOWN WITH TIME...HOWEVER
VERY GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WITH THE FRONT STILL
WARRANTS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES ARE
DECOUPLING IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE EAST AS INEZ WAS
REPORTING 45 CURRENTLY...WHILE LOWER 60S ARE THE THE COMMON
DENOMINATOR EVERYWHERE ELSE. DESPITE THIS...MORNING LOWS STILL LOOK
ON TRACK AS FRONT COMES BARRELING THROUGH. WILL ONLY ADJUST FOR
SOME MILDER CURRENT READINGS BEFORE THE BOTTOM FALLS OUT LATER ON
TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. ONLY OTHER DILEMMA IS CURRENT ZONE
BREAKUP. WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER FRONTAL PROGRESSION...WHICH WILL BE
PUSHING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY AROUND 1 AM. WILL GO AHEAD AND
RECONFIGURE ZONES TO MATCH UP WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY.
WILL BUMP POPS UP TO 100 PERCENT EVERYWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH PIKE COUNTY HAVING THE LOWEST POP OF 70%.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT BEFORE TOO LONG.

.JKL...NONE.

GEOGERIAN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW
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507 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2003

STRONG COLD FRONT STILL HEADING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY...MAKING
TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT OF A BEAR TO FIGURE OUT. FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD GUIDANCE HAD A 10 DEGREE SPREAD IN SOME CASES BETWEEN THE FWC
AND MAV/MET. AGAIN...TRIED TO COMPROMISE ON TEMPS FOR MORNING
LOWS...TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGHS...BEFORE DROPPING TEMPS THROUGH THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WERE ESPECIALLY STICKY...AS I AM WORRIED ABOUT
A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT FORMING EARLY TONIGHT. TEMPS DROPPED VERY
QUICKLY LAST NIGHT...AND FROM THE LOOK OF THE SKY OUTSIDE AND THE
SATELLITE LOOP...THIS MAY BE A PROBLEM. TRIED TO COVER TEMPS WITH A
RANGE...HOPING GRADIENT WINDS MIGHT HELP MIX THINGS UP ENOUGH TO
HELP BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS GET A CHANCE TO MOVE IN AND KEEP THINGS
FROM GETTING TOO FAR OUT OF HAND.

RAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO AGAIN TRIED TO TIME
PRECIP AND POPS TO CORRESPOND WITH MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF PRECIP...MAINLY MOVED PRECIP BACK
A FEW HOURS AND THEN MADE SOME ADDITIONAL TWEAKS TO MATCH UP BETTER
WITH CHANGES MADE BY SURROUNDING OFFICES.

STABILITY REALLY LACKING FOR THIS SYSTEM...AND THROUGH ADVICE FROM
OTHERS HERE..AND FROM LAST SYSTEM THAT CAME THROUGH...IT HAS BECOME
CLEAR TO ME THAT INSTABILITY IS A VERY IMPORTANT PARAMETER FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HERE. GUT FEELING IS THAT WE WILL NOT SEE ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA.
BUT LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE AND BECAUSE SPC STILL
HAS AREA IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK...AND SLIGHT RISK JUST
OUTSIDE THE WESTERN BORDER OF CWA.

ALSO LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS AS BUFFKIT STILL
SHOWING IP/S- FOR TWO TO THREE HOURS BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.
ALSO...THICKNESS PATTERNS INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS AS
WELL. HOWEVER...DONT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

LEFT POPS PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE FOR WEAKER SYSTEM WED/THUR.
MODELS HAVENT QUITE FIGURED OUT LATE WEEKEND...EARLY WEEK SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES INTO REGION BY NEXT SUNDAY. FOR NOW LEFT SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY.

RAY
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430 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2003

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. A
WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM THIS UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A LARGE
BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THE LOW...AND
ITS COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ON SATELLITE...THE
THICKEST CLOUDS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WITH A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS OF VARIOUS
THICKNESS ARE DRIFTING OVER EAST KENTUCKY BUT DOING LITTLE TO
PREVENT A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. AS
A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY ARE AGAIN EXHIBITING A
LARGE HILL TO VALLEY SPLIT RANGING FROM 55 DEGREES AT JKL AND 56 AT
MOUNT STERLING TO 42 AT LOZ AND 37 DEGREES AT INEZ.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE 00Z RUNS WITH
THE CLOSING-OFF PLAINS LOW...DEEPENING IT AND SPINNING IT NORTH-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES UP INTO THE HUDSON BAY BY 60
HOURS. THE VORT FIELDS FOR THE MODELS ARE EVEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO
WILL DEFINITELY GO WITH A BLEND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER THAT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW WILL ENSUE BEFORE A MORE GENTLE TROUGH
SWINGS THIS WAY JUST IN TIME FOR THE START OF THE HOLIDAY EXTENDED
WEEKEND.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO HOLD DOWN TEMPS
TODAY...KEEPING THE RISE IN CHECK EVEN AS WAA INCREASES ON SOUTH
WINDS. WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NICE WEATHER WE HAVE ENJOYED THIS
WEEKEND COMES CRASHING TO AN END LATE TONIGHT AS THE PLAIN/S LOW
RIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SLAMMING A COLD FRONT THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ETA...HAVE TIMED
FROPA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 12Z ACROSS THE CWA. A FEW
OF HOURS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS FROPA. THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL DYNAMICS OVERCOME A LACK OF INSTABILITY. EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. COLDER AIR WILL RAPIDLY PLUNGE INTO THE STATE IN THE FRONT/S
WAKE DRIVING TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BY EVENING. A CHANGE-OVER TO
A FEW SNOW FLAKES OR EVEN PARTIALLY MELTED...REFROZEN...SNOW FLAKES
...IF THE MESOETA/S LOW LEVEL TEMP STRUCTURE COMES TO FRUITION. WILL
PLAY THIS AS A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE ZONES AND GRIDS. NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

THE RAPID PULLOUT OF THE SFC LOW WILL PRECLUDE ANY WRAP-AROUND
CLOUDS AND PCPN THIS FAR SOUTH AS WELL AS GIVING US A UNFAVORABLE
WIND DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT
WILL GO DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. MONDAY NIGHT/S LOWS
WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST OF THIS EARLY COOL SEASON...BUT
MODERATION WILL TAKE PLACE QUICKLY. ACCORDINGLY... THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH BY LATE WEDNESDAY TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS DYNAMIC AS THE
POWERFUL FROPA STARING US DOWN FOR LATE TONIGHT.

MOS TEMPERATURES ARE ALL CLOSE WITH THE MAIN DISCREPANCIES BEING
MONDAY/S HIGHS DUE TO MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THEIR PARENT
MODELS AND THE FRONT. POPS REMAIN TROUBLING MAINLY AS A RESULT OF
THE ARTIFICIAL 12Z BREAKPOINT FOR POP VERIFICATION. LOW CATEGORICAL
POPS ARE THE WAY TO GO WITH THE FRONT AS A WHOLE...SPLITTING IT OVER
THE TWO PERIODS. THE MET AND MAV MOS NUMBERS HANDLE THIS EVENT
BEST.

GRIDS ARE AGAIN IN EXCELLENT SHAPE...JUST TWEAKED MAX AND MIN TEMPS
THROUGH THE NEXT 60 HOURS...MAINLY FINE TUNED FOR LATEST FRONT
TIMING. AGAIN SPENT MOST OF MY EFFORTS FINE-TUNING DETAILS OF SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS INCLUDES A NON-DIURNAL...FALLING...
TEMPERATURE TREND FOR MONDAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MIXED PCPN
TO END THE FRONTAL PCPN. ALSO TINKERED WITH THE TIMING AND CLOUDS/
PCPN EXTENT OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

PRELIMINARY CCF NUMBERS:
LOZ 071/041 042/022 049 289
JKL 072/041 043/024 046 188

GREIF