Flash Flood and Debris Flow in Puerto Rico, November 24, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
222 PM AST MON NOV 24 2003

THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE MODERATELY DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOL AIR AND
THE WINTERTIME TROPICAL AIR IS HOVERING OVER PUERTO RICO. MOISTURE
IS ABOUT 10 THOUSAND FEET DEEP BUT IS SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST IN THE EARLY MORNINGS AND OVER THE INTERIOR
IN THE AFTERNOONS. YESTERDAY...AREAS ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
RECEIVED UPWARD OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN. TODAY SOME OF THOSE AREAS HAVE
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES OF ONE HALF INCH OR LESS. RAIN THAT
FALLS IN THESE AREAS WILL CAUSE SMALL STREAMS TO SWELL RAPIDLY AND
SOME MAY EXCEED BANKFULL CONDITIONS. FOR THIS REASON A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS ISSUED UNTIL 7 PM. AFTER 7 PM SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL FALL
IN THE AREA...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE CONTRIBUTORY TO FLOODING.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ON THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO
DUE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER SOME AREAS MAY SEE PONDING ON ROADS AND LOW
AREAS JUST AFTER HEAVY SHOWERS.

THIS IS THE LAST BOUNDARY FOR A WHILE THAT WILL SETTLE IN OVER
PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD UNTIL THURSDAY.
AFTER WEDNESDAY WARM...MOIST AIR WILL RETURN OVER THE AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND BOTH MINIMUMS AND MAXIMUMS SHOULD INCREASE A
FEW DEGREES. ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO AND TIGHTEN GRADIENTS BUT THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER REACHING THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS SOMEWHAT BOTH OVER WATER AND OVER LAND. ON
SATURDAY NIGHT A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BUT WILL NOT COME
SOUTH OF 21 DEGREES NORTH. HOWEVER THE HIGH NORTH OF THE FRONT...IS
FORECAST TO REACH 1033 MB AT 37 NORTH 62 WEST. THIS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE THE GRADIENT...CAUSING WINDS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST TO
INCREASE...POSSIBLY TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WOULD BE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY. SNELL

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
SJU WW 074/084 074/083 074 12666
    BBBBB 085/076 085/076 085/076 085/076 085 64444334444
STT BW 075/085 075/084 075 12446
    BBBBB 086/077 086/077 086/077 086/077 086 64444434444=

.SJU...
.PR...FFA PRZ003-004-006-007-009.
.VI...NONE.

EQUIPMENT...RADAR OPERATING IN CHANNEL TWO. OIL LEAK ON CHANNEL
ONE...AND PROBLEMS DETECTED IN COMMS SERVER. ST. CROIX CEILIOMETER
INOPERATIVE.

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-242200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST MONDAY NOV 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. NO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

.TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. MINOR URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHERN SWELLS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO...SWIMMERS
AND SURFERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO LARGE BREAKING WAVES
ALONG THE SURF ZONE.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND NO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHERN SWELLS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN COAST OF ST THOMAS AND
ST JOHN...SWIMMERS AND SURFERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO LARGE
BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE SURF ZONE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

.TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. MINOR URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.