High Wind in Kansas, April 16, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
830 PM MDT MON APR 14 2003

CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD GIVEN CURRENT WIND GUSTS
TO OUR WEST PUSHING 55 MPH. FOR THE UPDATE I TWEAKED UP THE WINDS
TO MENTION GUSTS TO 60 MPH...ADJUSTED TIMING OF THE HIGHEST WINDS
OVER THE EAST A BIT FURTHER BACK (AROUND SUNRISE OR SO). OTHER
CHANGES WERE TO THE 3 HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED
ON RUC WHICH HAS A BIT BETTER HANDLE ON TEMPS UNDER THE RAIN COOLED
AIR. OTHER THAN THAT EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS SO ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET SO
BUMPED UP POPS TO 50 PERCENT. IMPRESSED TO SEE 50 KTS IN THE
TOPFLPGLD PRODUCT TOMORROW MORNING. HANG ON TO YOUR HATS

.GLD...HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY
       WARNING AREA.

DDT

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-161200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2003

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS A VERY WINDY TRI STATE AREA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...MOVING NORTHEAST FROM ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE A DRY LINE FORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS
TO MUCH OF THE TRI STATE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF LINE FROM STRATTON NEBRASKA TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS WHERE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE MOST ABUNDANT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 35
TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 55 MPH POSSIBLE. A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SAME TIME LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS WILL
PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. EXTREME FIRE DANGER MEANS FIRES START
QUICKLY...SPREAD FURIOUSLY...AND BURN INTENSELY. ALL FIRES ARE
POTENTIALLY SERIOUS. ALL OUTSIDE BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED IN AREAS
WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED EAST OF A LINE FROM STRATTON
NEBRASKA TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS.

RJC