Ice Storm in Minnesota, April 16 to 17, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
326 AM CDT WED APR 16 2003

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PCPN TYPES AND WIND. ETA HAS HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS AND WILL
FOLLOW. MOSAIC OF AREA 88-DS SHOWS THE PCPN BARELY MAKING INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF CWFA AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA IS EFFECTIVELY
SUPPRESSING THE PCPN. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FA DRY. PCPN TYPES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL BE A MIX
OF -RA/-FZRA/-PL. BRD HAS REPORTED FZRA JUST RECENTLY. WILL TRY TO
BUFFER GOING FROM NO PCPN NORTH...TO WET SOUTH. SINCE AMOUNT OF
FZRA/PL IS IN QUESTION...WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

SFC HIGH IS PUSHED EAST TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL BREAKS DOWN FROM
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. THIS WILL ALLOW AN
INVERTED SFC TROF TO SET UP OVER WESTERN MN. EXPECT BULK OF THE LIFT
AND MOISTURE AS WELL AS PCPN TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE TROF AS H85
WINDS GO LIGHT AT THE APEX OF THE SFC TROF AND THEREFORE KEEPING THE
PCPN FROM WRAPPING AROUND IT. AGAIN MIXED PCPN TYPES EXPECTED THROUGH
06Z. COLD AIR ADVECTING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF FA WILL CHANGE
PCPN TYPE TO ALL SNOW AFTER 06Z THURSDAY WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. SOUTHERN HALF OF FA WILL STILL HAVE MIXED PCPN...BUT MORE
OF A -SN/-PL MIX.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF LIFTS NE INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE SFC TROF TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA. PCPN WILL GRADUALLY
END FROM WEST TO EAST. SN WILL BE PCPN TYPE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
MIXED PCPN SOUTH EARLY...THEN BECOMING MIXED DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING.

.DLH...NONE.

GSF

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-161230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
730 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEGINNING
TONIGHT.

SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN SOUTH OF DULUTH TONIGHT AND
MAY SPREAD NORTHWARD AS FAR AS DULUTH AND THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE
OF WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ARE LIKELYL SOUTH OF DULUTH WEDNESDAY AND
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DLH

EOM