Flood and Heavy Rain in Connecticut, September 28, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
330 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY ACRS PA ATTM. SFC LOPRES CENTER
NEAR HATTERAS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS COMBINING TO PRODUCE HVY RAINS ACRS
PA/NJ AND PARTS OF THE REST OF THE MID ATLC ATTM...WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER. RADAR SHOWS THIS AREA MOVING SLOWLY N INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. RADAR MOSAIC ALSO SHOWING NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DVLPMNT
BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN...WITH MOST OF MD/DE/VA DRY ATTM.

COLD FRONT WL CONTINUE TRUDGING EWD TODAY AS AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF
LOPRES GETS ABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL BNDRY OVER OUR CWA. HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE THIS MORNING THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE CWA...AND
INTO THE AFTN HOURS ACRS ERN CT AND LI. WITH TROPICAL/CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PRECIP...MOST AREAS WL LIKELY SEE AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH OVER 2 POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SPOTS. AREAS TO THE NW OF NYC
HAVE ALREADY SEEN 1-1.5 WITH PREV EVENING ACTIVITY. AS SUCH...WL
KEEP CURRENT FFA GOING. AFTER THIS FIRST SOLID BATCH OF PRECIP MOVES
THROUGH, BELIEVE THAT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED HVY RAIN THREAT WL
BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. WL LEAVE EVERYONE ELSE OUT OF FFA (REST
OF NERN NJ/NYC/CT/LI)...UNLESS EARLY MORNING TRENDS DICTATE OTRW.

DESPITE GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR...OUR OVERALL SVR WX THREAT WL BE
MINIMAL DUE TO LACK OF SOLAR HEATING. WL NOT INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES FOR SVR TDY. HOWEVER... WL HAVE TO WATCH IF AND
WHERE ISOLD POCKETS OF INSTABILITY CAN DVLP TODAY. GIVEN THAT A FEW
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS CAN SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AND HARNESS THE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...WE MAY SEE AN ISOLD SVR WIND GUST OR WEAK TORNADO. THIS IS
SOMETHING MODELS CANNOT PICK UP ON NOW...BUT SOMETHING THAT WL HAVE
TO BE ANALYZED ON THE MESOSCALE LATER TDY.

SYSTEM PUSHES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. ERN LI/CT WILL SEE THE
PRECIP END LAST...WHEN THE FRONT/WAVE FINALLY EXITS THIS EVENING. WL
HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS THERE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

CAA COMMENCES THIS EVENING AS HIPRES MOVES IN. LOOKS LIKE QUIET WX
FOR MON AND TUE...WITH SLIGHTLY BLO NORM TEMPS.

NEXT S/W ROTATES OUT OF THE OH VLY AROUND LARGE POLAR VORTEX OVER
THE GR LAKES ON WED. CLOUDS LIKELY TO INCR LATER TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH CLOUDY SKIES WED WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS.

COOLEST AIR OF THIS YOUNG SEASON WL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS S/W
FOR THU AND FRI. MAX TEMPS LIKELY TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
60...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN RURAL AREAS. PERHAPS EVEN SOME 40S FOR
THE CITY.
&&

.AVIATION...CIGS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING UP AND DOWN AS THE NIGHT HAS
PROGRESSED. HAS BEEN TOUGH GO OF IT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SATELLITE
ECLIPSE. JUST RECEIVED THIS CAPABILITY BACK...AND FIRST FEW FRAMES
OF 11U-3.9U SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT KGON WILL STAY LIFR FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...BEST FORECAST AT THIS POINT WOULD BE
TO KEEP EVERYONE ELSE VFR OR MVFR PREVAILING...WITH TEMPO DROPS TO
IFR AND POSSIBLY WORSE IN AND AROUND PRECIPITATION. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO STARK CONTRAST OF CONDITIONS OF WITHIN
SMALL AREAS. SEVERAL OCCURANCES OF A VFR CIG IN METAR OBSERVATIONS
AT 07Z WITHIN 10 MILES OF AN IFR CIG AT SAME TIME...OUTSIDE OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER.
&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL
CONTINUE AS SE SWELLS OF 5-6 FT ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JUAN
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OCEAN WATERS. AT THE MOMENT...LOOKS LIKE THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. THEN...WELL
START TO SEE THE SEA HEIGHTS DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT. SE WINDS ON THE
WATERS AT THE MOMENT...WILL TURN SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE
WEST TODAY/EARLY THIS EVENING. MAGNITUDES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...LOOKING FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 1
INCH AREA-WIDE TODAY...WITH 1-2 LIKELY W AND N OF NYC. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION TRAINS.
&&

.OKX CURRENT WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUN 4PM...NJZ002>004.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUN 4PM...NYZ067>069.
MARINE...SCA FOR ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN...ANZ355-350-353.

PUBLIC/DATABASE...MLE
AVIATION/MARINE...JK

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-290915-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
430 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS
FRONT WILL HELP TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF TODAY. SOME OF THESE WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS ROADS
AND LOW LYING AREAS. MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT TO SEE AN INCH OF
RAIN TODAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR SOME AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY. PLEASE SEE
NYCFFAOKX FOR DETAILS.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.