High Wind in Alaska, September 28, 2003

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
600 AM ADT SUN SEP 28 2003

UPPER AIR...RIDGE NORTH OVER WESTERN CANADA AND TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA TO SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE...A 993 MB LOW 75 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLD BAY WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 987 MB 100 MILES NORTHWEST OF COLD BAY BY 4PM ADT
SUN. AT 4AM ADT MON THE LOW WILL BE 989 MB 150 MILES NORTHWEST
OF COLD BAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT 4PM ADT SUN THE FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND TO SAINT MARYS TO ANVIK AND EASTWARD
TO THE NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. AT 4AM ADT MON THE FRONT WILL
EXTEND NORTH BETWEEN NUNIVAK ISLAND AND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND TO
KOTZEBUE SOUND TO NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE AND EAST TO MACKENZIE
BAY. AT 4AM ADT TUE A 968 MB LOW WILL BE 200 MILES SOUTH OF COLD
BAY.

NORTHERN ALASKA SUMMARY...RAIN WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY NORTH WITH THE
WARM FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY MON NIGHT THE 534 DAM THICKNESS
WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST WITH NEARLY ALL TEMPERATURES
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MILD
WEATHER WILL PERSISTENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MRF DOES
SHOW A RETURN TO A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI AS
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA TO
WESTERN ALASKA. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE AND DELTA AS USUAL WITH THIS SCENARIO.

MARINE...A LARGE AMOUNT OF MID SHIFT ENERGY WAS USED ON THE
MARINE FORECAST DUE TO CONFLICTING COMPUTER MODEL FORECASTS
COMBINED WITH A SLOW COMPUTER. THE ETA MODEL WAS OBVIOUSLY IN
ERROR OVER THE MARINE WATERS. IT DID NOT FORECAST AN ADVISORY
AND WAS ALSO VERY DRY. THE AVN MANAGED TO HAVE SNOW OVER THE
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
IT ALSO GAVE AN ERRONEOUS HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR THE
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WATERS. THIS COULD HARDLY BE THE CASE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. AFTER POPULATING GRIDS WITH THE VARIOUS
MODELS IT WAS FOUND THAT THE MRF ENDED UP BEING THE BEST PICK.
VERY LITTLE HAD TO BE EDITED OUT OF THE MRF.

.AFG...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH ZONES 223 AND 226.
MARINE...GALE WARNING AREA 14, SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
            AREA 9A. NORTON SOUND FROM SLEDGE ISLAND TO NUNAKTUK
                ISLAND.
            AREA 9B, DALL POINT TO WALES INCLUDING THE SAINT
                LAWRENCE ISLAND WATERS.
            AREA 10B, WALES TO CAPE LISBURNE.
            AREA 11A, CAPE LISBURNE TO CAPE HALKETT.
            AREA 11B, CAPE HALKETT TO DEMARCATION POINT.

DA SEP 03