Flash Flood in Delaware, September 28, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
235 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003

I WILL BE GOING UP WITH A FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
ZONES IN EPA...THE NRN/WRN PART OF NJ/NEW CASTLE DEL/ AND CECIL CO
MD.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS DYNAMIC AS LAST TUESDAY...BUT
IT STILL HAS QUITE A BIT OF PUNCH. TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
HEADING NW THROUGH NJ/DEL/MD AND SE PA AND WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD NW
ENTRAINING INTO THE COLD FRONT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESS. THE BLYR WINDS
SHIFT A BIT SW BUT THE 1000 MB FLOW STAYS SE. SO THE MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO HEAD INLAND...ALTHOUGH THE DVLPG PCPN COULD TEMPORARILY
SHIFT NORTH.

THE BEST LIFT AND CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT ARE TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE FCST AREA. BUT CONSIDERING THE PCPN COULD END UP
TRAINING...AND THE FACT THAT STREAMS ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH FROM THE
RAIN LAST WEEK, A FLOOD WATCH SEEMS PRUDENT.

STRONG GUSTS COULD OCCUR WITH TSTMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BDRY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH DYNAMICS NOT AS STRONG OR ORGANIZED AS LAST
TUESDAY...I DONT ANTICIPATE SVR TSTMS...ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE PCPN PATTERN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT
THE PCPN MOVING ONSHORE WEAKENS AND THE COLD FRONTAL PRECIP WONT
MOVE IN UNTIL LATER.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...SOME
SHWERS COULD LINGER IN THE COOLER UNSTALBE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT.

A SERIES OF MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE WEEK...BUT THEIR MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO CHILL.

BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES COULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAINLY NORTH.

FCSTID =    9
MPO   58  61  45  58 / 100 100  20  20
ABE   63  67  47  65 / 100 100  20  20
RDG   63  68  47  65 / 100 100  20  20
PHL   67  73  53  68 /  70  90  10  10
12N   60  61  47  64 /  80  90  20  20
SMQ   66  68  49  66 /  80  90  20  10
TTN   67  72  51  66 /  70  90  20  10
MIV   68  74  50  65 /  60  90  10  10
ACY   70  74  56  69 /  60  90  10  10
ILG   67  74  52  67 /  70  90  10  10
DOV   69  74  52  67 /  60  80  10  10
GED   70  72  50  68 /  60  80  10  10
ESN   69  75  51  69 /  60  60  10  10

.PHI...
DE...FLOOD WATCH TNGT AND SUNDAY MORNING DEZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH TNGT AND SUNDAY MORNING MDZ008.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH TNGT AND SUNDAY MORNING NJZ001-007>010-012-015>019.
PA...FLOOD WATCH TNGT AND SUNDAY MORNING PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071.
MARINE...SCA PSBL BEGINNING SUNDAY OCEAN ONLY.

RNS
RNS

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-271030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
635 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE...AND
NEW JERSEY EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR THE POCONOS. THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COASTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE POCONOS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE REGION IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RIP CURRENTS ON
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TFG/ADDED RIP CURRENTS