Flash Flooding in Wisconsin, April 11 to 12, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
415 AM CDT THU APR 11 2002

FCST PBLMS MAINLY IN THE FIRST 24 HRS WITH PCPN CHCS AND TEMPS.

THE 08Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WRMFNT EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM MSP-AUW-
GRB WITH LTL MOVEMENT AS OF LATE. THIS IS NOT A SURPRISE CONSIDERING THE
SNOW ON THE GROUND OVR NRN WI. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC CONTS TO SHOW THE
BULK OF LGT PCPN MOVG OVR NRN WI IN AREA OF BEST MSTR CONVERGENCE. OTHER
SPOTTY VRY LGT RAIN SHWRS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH WK WAA TAKING PLACE
OVR THE SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. WL HAVE TO AT LEAST MENTION SOME
EARLY MORNING SPRINKLES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

FOR TDA...MDLS STILL ATTEMPT TO SEND WRMFNT NORTH INTO THE UPR PENINSULA
AS A STDY 30-40 KT LOW-LVL JET PREVAILS. WK WAA...THE PASSAGE OF A
DECENT SHRTWV...AND THE APPROACH OF A CDFNT THIS AFTERNOON ALL LEAD TO
ANOTHER DAY OF PCPN. EXCEPTION HERE IS THE SRN COUNTIES OF THE FCST AREA
WHICH ARE ALREADY IN THE WARM SECTOR. ENUF MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
BRZY CONDITIONS OVR E-CNTRL WI. AS THE CDFNT PUSHES THRU THE RGN TNGT...
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FROM Q-G CONVERGENCE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE RGN OF JET
WOULD LEAD TO THE BEST CHC OF SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS. ELEVATED LIS OF
AROUND ZERO COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME TSTM ACTIVITY. PCPN EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVRNGT.

CLDS LINGER INTO FRI MORNING AS LAST SHRTWV SWEEPS BY. DRIER AIR/
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SHRTWV AND WK RIDGING MOVG IN WL BREAK CLDS UP. CAA WL
LIMIT DIURNAL RISE AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED AND THIS ALREADY TAKEN
INTO ACCOUNT BY PREV FCST. DRY AND COOL FRI NGT WITH SFC RDG OVRHD. FOG
POTENTIAL WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED ESP OVR NRN WI WHERE HEAVIEST PCPN AMTS
HAVE FALLEN THUS FAR. AVN MDL KEEPS DRY AIR IN PLACE INTO SAT SO HAVE
REMOVED POPS IN THE NORTH FOR NOW.

MDLS HAVE ALL SLOWED THE PROGRESS OF THE CDFNT DOWN BUT ARE ALL IN
DECENT AGREEMENT. GUID TEMPS APR REASONABLE BUT ENDED UP USING MORE OF
THE ETA 2M TEMP WHICH WAS DEAD ON YDA ESP IN THE NORTH.

.GRB...NONE.

KALLAS
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-111500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
600 AM CDT THU APR 11 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO THE CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AS
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REMAIN RATHER WEAK. THEREFORE...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED AT NOON. ADDITIONAL WEATHER UPDATES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WHENEVER THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT.

KALLAS
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-111900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT THU APR 11 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  MUCH OF FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN
RECORDED AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
MELTING SNOW AND ADDITIONAL INCH OF PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY MORNING...
MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MERRILL TO WAUSAUKEE LINE.   TONIGHT A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS OVER THE STATE...PROVIDING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AS
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REMAIN RATHER WEAK. THEREFORE...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER UPDATES CAN BE FOUND IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST
WHENEVER THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

HELMAN
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB