Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, April 11, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
345 PM CDT THU APR 11 2002

TNGT:
CDFNT ENTERING CNTRL KS AT 12N WL GET PUSHED SE ACRS SC KS THIS AFTN
AS MID-LVL S/WV SPRINTS E ACRS CNTRL PLNS. XPCTD EWD PROGRESS OF
S/WV WOULD HAVE CDFNT VENTURING INTO SE KS THIS EVE. MID-UPR 50S SFC
MSTR AXIS AWAITS CDFNTS ARVL IN SC & SE KS. SO FAR WDSPRD AC/AS
KEEPING LID ON SGFNT CONVECTION WITH ONLY SCT -SHRA OCRG ACRS ERN KS
EARLY THIS AFTN. S/WVS CROSSING KS SHUD SCOUR OUT AC/AS LATE THIS
AFTN. QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT CLEARING WL BE SOON ENOUGH TO
DESTABLIZE AMS TO POINT WHERE SUFFICIENT DESTABLIZATION RSLTS IN
SGFNT TSRA EARLY THIS EVE IN SC & SE KS. FOR NOW AM RUNNING 30-40%
POPS ACRS SC & SE KS WITH THE HIGHER POP ASSIGNED SE. SINCE SPC
ISSUED SVR #84 TO INCL SALINE & MCPHERSON COUNTIES WL HAVE MENTION
20% +TS THIS SXN OF CNTRL KS FOR EARLY THIS EVE. (TOP PLEASE NOTE
THIS CHG FM INITIAL DISC ISSUED AT 220 PM.) EVE EMPHASIZED IN SC &
SE KS CASES AS WELL. CNTRL KS TO CLEAR THIS EVE AS WEAK SFC HIGH
NOSES SWD IN WAKE OF CDFNTL PASSAGE. MINS REFLECT CDFNT POSITIONING
(45F CNTRL TO 50F SE).

TMW:
MOSUNNY WX SLATED ALL AREAS AS LARGE BUT WEAK SFC HIGH DOMINATES.
WITH WEAK E/SE LWR-LVL COMP MAXES 70F.

TMW NGT:
DEEPENING SFC TROF ALG NRN FRONT RANGE TEAMS WITH DEPARTING SFC HIGH
TO ENABLE LWR-LVL FLOW TO ASSUME S/SE COMP THATLL GRADUALLY MOISTEN
TWD MRNG. POPS LMTD TO WRN 1/2 CNTRL KS (30% TWD MRNG). MINS 50F
SHUD SUFFICE ALL AREAS.

SAT:
WITH SFC-850MB TROF SHEARING IN MRNG, LWR-LVL PAT NON-DESCRIPT. AB-
SENCE OF LWR-LVL FOCUS DICTATES NO MORE THAN 30% POPS ALL AREAS.
MAXES 70F APR KOSHER ALL AREAS.

SAT NGT:
NEXT MID-LVL S/WV DVLPG OVER NEBRASKA/KS BDR SAT AFTN GETS BETTER
ESTABLISHED AS IT SPRINTS E/SE ACRS ERN KS IN EVE. LACK OF LWR-LVL
FOCUS DICTATES ONLY GENERIC 30% POPS SC & SE KS. MINS 50F APR KOSHER
WITH CNTRL KS ON COOLER SIDE OF FENCE.

SUN:
VIGOROUS UPSTAIRS S/WV ZIPPING E ACRS PAC NW INDUCES MARKED DEEPENING
OF NEXT NRN PLNS SFC TROF. RSLTG SLY FLOW PRODUCES MAXES OF 75-80F
WITH WRN CORRIDOR ON WARMER END OF SPECTRUM.

SUN NGT:
MILD WX SLATED ALL AREAS AS SFC TROF DEEPENS FURTHER TO PRODUCE BRISK
SLY FLOW. MINS 60F APR KOSHER WITH SC KS ON WARMER SIDE OF FENCE.

MON:
MRFY MUCH SLOWER ON ADVANCEMENT OF CDFNT THAN ITS PREDECESSOR FM
YDA. (TOP HAD ALERTED ME TO THAT POSSIBILITY YDA.) MAXES 80F APR
KOSHER WITH WARMEST ACRS SW SXN OF CWA.

MON NGT:
BREEZY & MILD WX CONTS AS CDFNT REMAINS NW OF CWA. MINS OF 60-65F
SHUD SUFFICE ALL AREAS.

TUE:
SE PROGRESSION OF CDFNT TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS ALL FACETS OF FCST
DEPEND HEAVILY ON ITS BEHAVIOR. WITH MEAN POS-TILTED UPR TROF DRAPED
FM SRN CA TO SASK, AM PLANNING ON CDFNT REMAINING JUST OF NW OF CWA.
MAXES 80F AGN APR KOSHER WITH MOST AREAS ON WARMER SIDE OF FENCE.

TUE NGT:
CONFIDENCE LVL LOW REGARDING SE PROGRESS OF CDFNT BUT CREATURE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY GENERIC CHC TSRA ALL AREAS.

REST OF EXTENDED:
NO SGFNT CHGS PLANNED ATTM.
ES

COORD: TOP.

FCSTID = 4
ICT   48  71  50  71 /  30   0   0  30
HUT   46  71  50  71 /  30   0   0  30
EWK   47  71  50  70 /  30   0   0  30
EQA   48  71  50  71 /  30   0   0  30
WLD   49  71  50  71 /  30   0   0  30
RSL   45  70  50  70 /   0   0  30  30
GBD   45  71  50  70 /   0   0  30  30
SLN   46  71  50  70 /  20   0  10  30
MPR   46  70  50  70 /  20   0  10  30
CFV   50  71  50  70 /  30   0   0  30
CNU   49  70  50  70 /  30   0   0  30
K88   48  69  50  69 /  30   0   0  30

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ051>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-120500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1158 AM CDT THU APR 11 2002

...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL TAG
ALONG THIS WAVE...AND IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING.
THE CLOUDS THAT WE HAVE HAD ALL MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THE CLOUDS
ERODE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTER 2 PM IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL THEN
BECOME ORIENTED IN A LINE AND PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
EVENING.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.