Damaging Wind in Kansas, April 11, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
315 PM CDT THU APR 11 2002

DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

COOL FRONT WAS THROUGH NEARLY ALL THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST
THE SOUTHEAST FEW COUNTIES LEFT TO GO.  LATEST SFC OBS FROM KP28
INDICATING THAT THE SURFACE WINDS ARE STARTING TO VEER WITH
DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO FALL OFF.  VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY INDICATING
SOME CU FORMING OVER BARBER CO AT MID AFTERNOON.  OUTSIDE CHANCE
THAT A STORM COULD FIRE IN BARBER OR EVEN SOUTHERN PRATT COUNTY BUT
THINK THAT FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ON THROUGH BEFORE THINGS GET CRANKED
UP TOO MUCH. ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWED A JET STREAK OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN OREGON THIS MORNING.  THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN
PROPAGATING EAST WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON.  VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY
SHOWING SOME CU MASSING IN THAT AREA AND SOME RETURNS STARTING TO
SHOW UP ON RADAR.  DONT THINK ANY OF THIS WOULD LAST MUCH PAST
SUNSET AND NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT ANY OF IT GETTING INTO THE CWA.
WILL LEAVE DRY FORECAST AS IS TONIGHT.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH RESULTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT DRIER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHTER WINDS.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS OVER THE WEST AND NORTH.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON.  TIMING THIS
FEATURE SEEMS TO LINE UP NICELY WITH THE MODEL FORECASTS, ALTHOUGH
THEY SEEM TO HAVE A LITTLE TROUBLE IN THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THE VORT MAX.  AVN MODEL LOOKS LIKE IT IS HAVING TROUBLE WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS IT GOES NUTS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE VORT
AND ESPECIALLY THE MODEL QPF.  WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER FRIDAY EVENING, THINK THIS WILL HELP FOCUS
THE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA.  WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.  THIS WAVE SHOULD MOVE ON THROUGH
AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING SO WILL GO WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

DAYS 3-7...

LATEST EXTENDED OUTPUT STARTING TO CONVERGE ON THE SOLUTION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE EARLY TO MID PART OF
NEXT WEEK. TODAYS MRF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THIS SCENARIO
SEEMS TO BE A VIABLE SOLUTION SAVE FOR THE DETAILS ON THE AMPLITUDE
OF THE TROF. UPSHOT IS THAT CHANCE THUNDER POPS WILL EXIST IN THE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FORECAST. TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE
ABOUT 15 DEGS ABOVE CLIMO BEFORE PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CWA BY MID-WEEK. WITH UPPER TROF AND PACIFIC FRONT MOVING EAST OF
THE CWA BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WILL PLAN TO COOL THINGS OFF TO
AROUND 10 DEGS BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FORECAST.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   46  73  50  73 /   0   0  40   0
GCK   44  74  47  71 /   0   0  40   0
EHA   44  74  50  73 /   0   0  40   0
LBL   45  75  48  72 /   0   0  40   0
HYS   47  72  49  72 /   0   0  30   0
P28   49  72  52  74 /   0   0  40   0

.DDC...NONE.

GERARD/MCCAMMON