High Wind in Tennessee, September 27, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
945 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2002

THE FOLLOWING ARE ALL THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24
HOURS...WITH THE MOST RECENT ON TOP. THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.
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EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION
945 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2002

...NOT ENUF EVIDENCE TO CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH FOR FRIDAY. WILL
FOLLOWUP ZONES AND FFA TO TRIM BACK TIMING.

PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI ACROSS E TN AND
SW NC. EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY TO PLATEAU AND UPPED WINDS ALL ZONES.
CHANGED TEMPERATURES WORDING TO RISING ALL ZONES DUE TO STRONG WAA.
HIGH POPS AND FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT MAY BE OVERDONE AND EXPECT
NIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO ADJUST DOWNWARD WITH MORNING PACKAGE.

.MRX...
NC...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR ZONES NCZ060>061.

TN...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR ZONES
TNZ012>013...TNZ035...TNZ081>082...TNZ098.

WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR ZONES TNZ012>013...TNZ018...
TNZ035...TNZ041...TNZ043...TNZ045...TNZ047...TNZ072...TNZ074...
TNZ081>082...TNZ087...TNZ098...TNZ102.

VA...NONE.

SON

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AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION
945 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2002

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE
OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...MOVING TO THE NORTH. ISIDORE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND CENTRAL KY TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP
MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND WINDS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE PLATEAU TO BETTER MESH
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WATCHES. EXPECT AN AVERAGE OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE PLATEAU BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
GENERALLY AN INCH ON AVERAGE EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT 850 MB WINDS WILL BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT
RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...SO WILL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
MOST OF THE REMNANTS OF ISIDORE SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY FRIDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY STILL BE
AROUND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

IN THE EXTENDED...A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN. AVN MODEL INDICATES THAT THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
SYSTEM LILLY MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS
COULD CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARD A SMALL RANGE IN TEMPS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SINCE OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED.

THE FOLLOWING NUMBERS ARE PRELIMINARY AND FOR COORDINATION ONLY:

CHA   62  68  60  82 / 100 100  30   0
TYS   60  68  59  78 / 100 100  40   0
TRI   56  68  56  76 / 100 100  50   0
OQT   60  68  59  78 / 100 100  40   0

DMG

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MID-MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION
945 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2002

WEDGE CONTINUES IN PLACE AND AS A RESULT WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES...SO WILL
LOWER TEMPERATURES ONE CATEGORY AREA WIDE.  NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED
WITH CATEGORICAL OCCASIONAL RAINS IN FORECAST.

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EARLY MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION
945 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2002

WELL...AFTER A SOGGY AND COOL WEDNESDAY...REALIZED THAT THE AVN MODEL
HAS CONSISTENTLY DONE WELL WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM
ISIDORE.  THUS...THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS FASHIONED MUCH IN
LINE WITH THAT MODEL...AND OF COURSE IN LINE WITH THE NHC TRACK.
STILL...IMPRESSED THAT THE SATURATION OF A DRY AIRMASS HAPPENED SO
FAST...AND THAT THE RAIN WAS MODERATE TO HEAVY WELL NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL STORM...AND HAS PERSISTED FOR SUCH A DURATION.

DAY SHIFT LEFT ME WITH A VERY GOOD PACKAGE AND GRIDS TO BUILD ON.
DECISION ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT TO ISSUE...GIVEN THE TRACK
AND LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVIEST RAINS JUST WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
(SEE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FROM HPC).  I DO FEEL THAT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL KICK IN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER SE TN/SRN MTNS AND NE PLATEAU.  ELSEWHERE...THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME A FACTOR AND KEEP AMOUNTS DOWN.  KEPT
MENTION OF RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THE BOARD...AND FEEL
THAT THESE ARE REALLY SOME MUCH BENEFICIAL RAINS FOR THE REGION.

OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN WAS WIND SPEEDS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS.  STRONG CIRCULATION AROUND THE SYSTEM...WITH AVN SHOWING
40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET BY 06Z FRIDAY.  I INCREASED WIND SPEED
GRIDS FOR MOUNTAIN ZONES...USING AVN MOS WINDS AS A BASIS...WHICH
HAS WINDY WORDING IN MTNS AND SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30 WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH RANGE.  LATER SHIFTS WILL GET A CHANCE TO ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY OR BACK OFF IF NEEDED.

LAST ITEM IS TEMPS...AND JUST HAD TO GO AT OR BELOW MOS HIGHS FOR
TODAY...GIVEN PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
IMPRESSIVE FOR FRIDAY...BUT MUCH OF THIS WILL GO INTO LIFT FOR MORE
RAINFALL...SO DID NOT GO ANY WHERE NEAR THE NGM OR ETA MOS HIGHS.
MINS ARE TRICKY...BUT SAW NO REAL REASON TO GO AGAINST SIMILAR MOS
NUMBERS.  THANKS TO NEIGHBOR NWS OFFICES FOR GOOD COLLABORATION
ON THE FORECAST...AND YOU WILL FIND MY PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS BELOW:

FCSTID =   10
CHA   70  66  77  61 / 100 100  90  30
TYS   70  64  75  60 /  90  90  90  40
TRI   68  62  74  58 /  90  90  90  40
OQT   69  65  76  60 /  90  90  90  40

TG