High Wind in Tennessee, September 27, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
350 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002

THE FOLLOWING ARE ALL THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24
HOURS...WITH THE MOST RECENT ON TOP. THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.
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EARLY MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION
350 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002

ISIDORE IS RACING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND FOLLOWING
CLOSELY WITH THE AVN SOLUTION WHICH WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH THIS
PACKAGE.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IS WIND. AREA VWP SHOWS 50 KNOTS WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE WITH SOME REPORTS OF TREES DOWN ACROSS THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUCH AS ROANE MOUNTAIN.  GIVEN
THE SOGGY GROUND...WILL NOT TAKE HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS
TO BLOW TREES DOWN.  HOWEVER...GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY FOR
TODAY AND EXPAND TO INCLUDE THE VALLEYS AS WELL.  SOME REPORTS
OF TREES DOWN HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
HAMILTON COUNTY.

BANDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE MOVING AROUND THE
REMNANTS OF ISIDORE.  ONE SUCH BAND IS MOVING ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN UP TO
ONE INCH AN HOUR BEING ESTIMATED BY RADAR...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
RECEIVING ONE-QUARTER INCH.  WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
EXPIRE AT 4 PM AS STORMS ARE RACING NORTHEAST AND WILL NOT BE LOCATED
OVER ONE AREA VERY LONG.

HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY GIVEN PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND
ISIDORE LIMITING INSOLATION TODAY...BUT EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
ARE ALREADY IN THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL TREND TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

MODELS SHOW ISIDORE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND END SHOWER CHANCE
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SKY WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING
SOUTHERN HALF AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AS
PWS DROP SHARPLY FROM NEAR 2 INCHES THIS MORNING TO BELOW 1 INCH
BY TONIGHT.  SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN...AREAS OF FOG...
SOME LOCALLY DENSE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR SATURDAY...MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY.

FCSTID =   15
CHA   83  62  84  60 /  50   0   0   0
TYS   81  62  82  59 /  70   5   0   0
TRI   79  59  81  53 /  80  20   0   0
OQT   80  62  82  59 /  70   5   0   0

.MRX...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES NCZ060>061.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ALL ZONES.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES VAZ001>002... VAZ005>006...
     VAZ008.

DH
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EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION
945 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2002

...NOT ENUF EVIDENCE TO CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH FOR FRIDAY. WILL
FOLLOWUP ZONES AND FFA TO TRIM BACK TIMING.

PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI ACROSS E TN AND
SW NC. EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY TO PLATEAU AND UPPED WINDS ALL ZONES.
CHANGED TEMPERATURES WORDING TO RISING ALL ZONES DUE TO STRONG WAA.
HIGH POPS AND FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT MAY BE OVERDONE AND EXPECT
NIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO ADJUST DOWNWARD WITH MORNING PACKAGE.

.MRX...
NC...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR ZONES NCZ060>061.

TN...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR ZONES
TNZ012>013...TNZ035...TNZ081>082...TNZ098.

WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR ZONES TNZ012>013...TNZ018...
TNZ035...TNZ041...TNZ043...TNZ045...TNZ047...TNZ072...TNZ074...
TNZ081>082...TNZ087...TNZ098...TNZ102.

VA...NONE.

SON

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AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION
945 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2002

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE
OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...MOVING TO THE NORTH. ISIDORE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND CENTRAL KY TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP
MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND WINDS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE PLATEAU TO BETTER MESH
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WATCHES. EXPECT AN AVERAGE OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE PLATEAU BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
GENERALLY AN INCH ON AVERAGE EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT 850 MB WINDS WILL BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT
RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...SO WILL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
MOST OF THE REMNANTS OF ISIDORE SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY FRIDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY STILL BE
AROUND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

IN THE EXTENDED...A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN. AVN MODEL INDICATES THAT THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
SYSTEM LILLY MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS
COULD CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARD A SMALL RANGE IN TEMPS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SINCE OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED.

THE FOLLOWING NUMBERS ARE PRELIMINARY AND FOR COORDINATION ONLY:

CHA   62  68  60  82 / 100 100  30   0
TYS   60  68  59  78 / 100 100  40   0
TRI   56  68  56  76 / 100 100  50   0
OQT   60  68  59  78 / 100 100  40   0

DMG

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MID-MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION
945 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2002

WEDGE CONTINUES IN PLACE AND AS A RESULT WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES...SO WILL
LOWER TEMPERATURES ONE CATEGORY AREA WIDE.  NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED
WITH CATEGORICAL OCCASIONAL RAINS IN FORECAST.