High Wind in Oregon, November 7, 2002

NORTHEAST OREGON/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 AM PST THU NOV 7 2002

CONCERN IS WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.

MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND REMAIN
STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SPIN SEVERAL DISTURBANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FIRST WILL BE TODAY AND ANOTHER TONIGHT
WHICH MAY BE STRONGER THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND I WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A WEAK COOL FRONT
MOVES ACROSS OREGON FRIDAY AND TURN ALL OF THE AREAS WINDS TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AND MAY INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY TO WINDY CATEGORY.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER SOME BUT IT APPEARS ONLY THE HIGHER AREA MOUNTAINS
MAY SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET.

BY SATURDAY REMINANTS FROM EXTROPICAL HUKO WILL PLOW INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
THEREFORE I HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES AND 850MBS/TEMPS FALL TO
AROUND 2-3 CELSIUS INDICATING THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING TO
POSSIBLY UNDER 6000 FEET.

EXTENDED...MODELS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...GIVING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DAYS 4 THROUGH 6. ON SUNDAY A VIGOROUS
WAVE...WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. BEHIND THIS
WAVE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RIDGE
NORTHWARD BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. THE BREAK WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER. ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW ON TUESDAY BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN OREGON. CONFIDENCE THEN
DECREASES...ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO BUILD THE PACIFIC RIDGE
NORTHWARD AGAIN AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FLOW MORE ZONAL WITH ANOTHER
WAVE ENTERING THE PAC NW.  THEREFORE...ONLY A FEW CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED TO INCREASE THE PRECIP CHANCES ON TUESDAY.  JR

PDT 576  ALW 576  PSC 465  YKM 565

.KPDT...NONE.

ORZ041>050-WAZ024>030-072300-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
500 AM PST THU NOV 7 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON

.DAY ONE... TODAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM SOUTH WINDS OF 20
TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL OREGON.
THIS INCLUDES UNION AND DESCHUTES COUNTIES WHERE GUSTS MAY APPROACH
45 MPH.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
SEVERAL INTENSE WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE
DISTURBANCES AND PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET...MAY EXPERIENCE SOME
SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR
AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OREGON
633 AM PST THU NOV 07 2002

TIME(PST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0545 AM    LA PINE                   OR   NON TSTM WINDS
11/07/02   DESCHUTES                      TREES DOWN ON POWER
                                          LINES CAUSING FIRES.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0545 AM    JOHN DAY                  OR   NON TSTM WINDS
11/07/02   GRANT                          POWER LINES AND TREES
                                          DOWN. BLOCKING HWY 395
                                          SOUTH OF JOHN DAY.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0550 AM    JOHN DAY                  OR   NON TSTM WINDS
11/07/02   GRANT                          40 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS
                                          TO 50 MPH REPORTED BY
                                          STORM SPOTTER.

0625 AM    BEND                      OR   NON TSTM WINDS
11/07/02   DESCHUTES                      19 TREES DOWN. GUSTS TO
                                          50 MPH. REPORTED BY
                                          STORM SPOTTER.

ORZ044>046-049-050-WAZ025>030-071830-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
635 AM PST THU NOV 7 2002

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...
STRONG SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS TO 50 MPH WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING.

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENTS OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON TO PRODUCE STRONG SOUTH WINDS
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 30 TO 40
MPH ALONG WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.

BETWEEN 5 AM AND 6 AM TODAY...NEAR JOHN DAY AND SUNRIVER...WIND
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH RESULTED IN DOWN TREES.

RESIDENTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION THIS MORNING WHEN
DRIVING TO WORK.