Dense Fog in Oklahoma, May 4, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
953 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2002

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR
EASTERN SECTIONS OF CWA AS UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST.  FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...AND
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.  SURFACE RIDGING INTO
EASTERN SECTIONS OF STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS ACROSS SE TO BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
AREAS WITH LESS HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE SUBJECT
TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE FOG DEVELOPMENT.  APPEARS BEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF AREA AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST.  WILL UPDATE TO ADD MENTION
OF THIS AND MAYBE ADJUST TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.

SIX

345 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2002
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL LIKELY MAKE LITTLE MOVEMENT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. MEANWHILE... UPPER WAVE IN CENTRAL KANSAS WILL
MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT... WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF PCPN. LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS HAVE ERODED VERY SLOWLY DURING THE
DAY. EXPECT CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE KANSAS WAVE SPREADS INTO THE AREA. WITH ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANGE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS... COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF
FOG/LOW CLOUDS REFORM LATE TONIGHT IN THIS SAME AREA... ALTHOUGH
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR. TEXAS FRONT EXPECTED TO MAKE
SOME PROGRESS NORTH TOMORROW...BUT REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT...BUT CHANCES FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS OVER THE FA WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
JET INITIATES ADVECTION OF MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE AREA. MEANWHILE... A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
COULD FOCUS A FEW TSTMS IN THAT AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PRETTY GOOD CHANCES OF TSTMS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY
STRONG FLOW CONTINUING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A WEAK WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. NOT SURE HOW LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES FROM
PREVIOUS NIGHTS CONVECTION WILL ULTIMATELY LAYOUT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH ETA HINTS AT THE TEXAS FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS AT THAT TIME. APPEARS THE DRYLINE WILL STILL BE WELL
WEST OF THE AREA...IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO OR FAR WEST TEXAS... THUS
ANY TSTMS FROM THIS FEATURE WOULD NOT AFFECT OUR FA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...IF AT ALL.

IN THE LONGER TERM... WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
THROUGH THE LATER PERIODS. DRYLINE EXPECTED TO INITIATE TSTMS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WHILE CURRENTLY ILL-DEFINED WAVES EXPECTED TO
LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER TROUGH. STRENGTHENING OF MID
LEVEL CAP COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR. TSTMS CHANCES TO INCREASE
AROUND MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WED NITE/THURS.
WILL GO WITH TIMING MORE IN LINE WITH SLOWER ECMWF...AS PER HPC
DISC.

FCSTID = 32
OKC   52  80  58  77 /   0  10  30  50
HBR   52  82  62  78 /   0  10  50  50
SPS   54  84  62  80 /   0  10  60  60
GAG   46  80  57  78 /   0  20  30  30
PNC   51  80  58  78 /   0  10  20  30
DUA   55  82  63  79 /   0  10  60  60

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.